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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, May 9, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 10, 2026

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, May 9, 2026

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 14-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

⭐ OAK @ BAL: Gunnar Henderson vs Aaron Civale — Ball (52.0% | -108) Civale 52.0% ball rate, Henderson 34.5% swing tendency

⭐ HOU @ CIN: Jose Altuve vs Chase Burns — Ball (53.3% | -114) Burns 53.3% ball rate, Altuve 47.4% swing tendency

⭐ MIN @ CLE: Steven Kwan vs Joe Ryan — Strike (66.9% | -202) Ryan 68.4% zone, Kwan swings 3.5% of the time

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

LAA @ TOR — 3:07 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Trey Yesavage vs Zach Neto Projected: In Play — 13.2% (fair odds +656)

Trey Yesavage: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.5 mph
Zach Neto: Swing 50.4%, In Play 13.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Jack Kochanowicz vs George Springer Projected: In Play — 17.4% (fair odds +473)

Jack Kochanowicz: Zone 76.7%, Ball 23.3%
George Springer: Swing 32.2%, In Play 17.4%

OAK @ BAL — 4:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Shane Baz vs Nick Kurtz Projected: In Play — 13.5% (fair odds +643)

Shane Baz: Zone 55.3%, Ball 44.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.8 mph
Nick Kurtz: Swing 41.7%, In Play 13.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Aaron Civale vs Gunnar Henderson Projected: Ball — 52.0% (fair odds -108)

Aaron Civale: Zone 48.0%, Ball 52.0%
Gunnar Henderson: Swing 34.5%, In Play 8.9%

HOU @ CIN — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Chase Burns vs Jose Altuve Projected: Ball — 53.3% (fair odds -114)

Chase Burns: Zone 46.7%, Ball 53.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 98.1 mph
Jose Altuve: Swing 47.4%, In Play 11.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Arrighetti vs TJ Friedl Projected: Strike — 66.7% (fair odds -200)

Spencer Arrighetti: Zone 72.7%, Ball 27.3%
TJ Friedl: Swing 9.2%, In Play 6.0%

WSH @ MIA — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Janson Junk vs James Wood Projected: In Play — 16.8% (fair odds +494)

Janson Junk: Zone 65.2%, Ball 34.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph
James Wood: Swing 35.8%, In Play 16.8%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Richard Lovelady vs Xavier Edwards Projected: insufficient first-pitch data

COL @ PHI — 6:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Aaron Nola vs Edouard Julien Projected: No Pick — — (fair odds —)

Aaron Nola: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph
Edouard Julien: Swing 36.1%, In Play 11.8%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Freeland vs Trea Turner Projected: Strike — 62.8% (fair odds -169)

Kyle Freeland: Zone 73.0%, Ball 27.0%
Trea Turner: Swing 15.1%, In Play 10.2%

MIN @ CLE — 6:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Tanner Bibee vs Byron Buxton Projected: In Play — 18.2% (fair odds +451)

Tanner Bibee: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.4 mph
Byron Buxton: Swing 54.1%, In Play 18.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Joe Ryan vs Steven Kwan Projected: Strike — 66.9% (fair odds -202)

Joe Ryan: Zone 68.4%, Ball 31.6%
Steven Kwan: Swing 3.5%, In Play 1.5%

CHC @ TEX — 7:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jack Leiter vs Nico Hoerner Projected: No Pick — — (fair odds —)

Jack Leiter: Zone 56.2%, Ball 43.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.8 mph
Nico Hoerner: Swing 4.5%, In Play 5.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Edward Cabrera vs Brandon Nimmo Projected: Strike — 61.8% (fair odds -162)

Edward Cabrera: Zone 73.6%, Ball 26.4%
Brandon Nimmo: Swing 18.6%, In Play 11.8%

DET @ KC — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Michael Wacha vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: In Play — 45.1% (fair odds +122)

Michael Wacha: Zone 76.3%, Ball 23.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph
Kevin McGonigle: Swing 31.2%, In Play 45.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Burch Smith vs Maikel Garcia Projected: insufficient first-pitch data

SEA @ CWS — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Anthony Kay vs Rob Refsnyder Projected: insufficient first-pitch data

B1 (Bottom 1st): Luis Castillo vs Sam Antonacci Projected: insufficient first-pitch data

NYY @ MIL — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Harrison vs Paul Goldschmidt Projected: In Play — 20.8% (fair odds +380)

Kyle Harrison: Zone 91.7%, Ball 8.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.1 mph
Paul Goldschmidt: Swing 30.0%, In Play 20.8%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Cam Schlittler vs Jackson Chourio Projected: Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)

Cam Schlittler: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%
Jackson Chourio: Swing 48.5%, In Play 12.6%

STL @ SD — 7:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Randy Vásquez vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: No Pick — — (fair odds —)

Randy Vásquez: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.7 mph
JJ Wetherholt: Swing 35.5%, In Play 9.7%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Dustin May vs Jackson Merrill Projected: Ball — 46.7% (fair odds +114)

Dustin May: Zone 53.3%, Ball 46.7%
Jackson Merrill: Swing 80.0%, In Play 3.3%

NYM @ ARI — 7:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Merrill Kelly vs Juan Soto Projected: insufficient first-pitch data

B1 (Bottom 1st): Clay Holmes vs Ketel Marte Projected: In Play — 16.0% (fair odds +523)

Clay Holmes: Zone 60.5%, Ball 39.5%
Ketel Marte: Swing 36.5%, In Play 16.0%

PIT @ SF — 9:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Landen Roupp vs Oneil Cruz Projected: No Pick — — (fair odds —)

Landen Roupp: Zone 62.1%, Ball 37.9%, 1st pitch Sinker 92.7 mph
Oneil Cruz: Swing 46.3%, In Play 9.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Braxton Ashcraft vs Jung Hoo Lee Projected: No Pick — — (fair odds —)

Braxton Ashcraft: Zone 60.9%, Ball 39.1%
Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 18.2%, In Play 6.7%

ATL @ LAD — 9:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Blake Snell vs Mauricio Dubón Projected: insufficient first-pitch data

B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Strider vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: No Pick — — (fair odds —)

Spencer Strider: Zone 54.2%, Ball 45.8%
Shohei Ohtani: Swing 21.4%, In Play 6.5%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.