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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 10, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 10, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 10, 2026

May 9 Results: Strike Picks: 2/4 | Ball Picks: 1/4 | In Play Picks: 0/8

❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ George Springer - In Play / ❌ Nick Kurtz - In Play / ✅ Gunnar Henderson - Ball / ❌ Jose Altuve - Ball / ❌ TJ Friedl - Strike / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Trea Turner - Strike / ❌ Byron Buxton - In Play / ✅ Steven Kwan - Strike / ✅ Brandon Nimmo - Strike / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Paul Goldschmidt - In Play / ❌ Jackson Chourio - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Jackson Merrill - Ball

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

⭐ PIT @ SF: Jung Hoo Lee vs Bubba Chandler — Strike (73.3% | -274) Chandler 82.3% zone, Lee swings 17.4% of the time

⭐ STL @ SD: JJ Wetherholt vs Walker Buehler — Ball (54.8% | -121) Buehler 54.8% ball rate, Wetherholt 34.4% swing tendency

⭐ DET @ KC: Matt Vierling vs Noah Cameron — Ball (53.3% | -114) Cameron 53.3% ball rate, Vierling 14.3% swing tendency

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

WSH @ MIA — 12:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Sandy Alcantara vs James Wood Projected: In Play — 20.1% (fair odds +398)

  • Sandy Alcantara: Zone 74.4%, Ball 25.6%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.4 mph
  • James Wood: Swing 35.2%, In Play 20.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Cade Cavalli vs Xavier Edwards Projected: In Play — 15.5% (fair odds +545)

  • Cade Cavalli: Zone 72.2%, Ball 27.8%
  • Xavier Edwards: Swing 30.6%, In Play 15.5%

COL @ PHI — 1:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Cristopher Sánchez vs Jordan Beck Projected: In Play — 21.3% (fair odds +369)

  • Cristopher Sánchez: Zone 69.0%, Ball 31.0%, 1st pitch Sinker 94.6 mph
  • Jordan Beck: Swing 40.0%, In Play 21.3%

TB @ BOS — 1:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Payton Tolle vs Chandler Simpson Projected: In Play — 28.2% (fair odds +254)

  • Payton Tolle: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.0 mph
  • Chandler Simpson: Swing 26.7%, In Play 28.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Nick Martinez vs Jarren Duran Projected: In Play — 13.0% (fair odds +668)

  • Nick Martinez: Zone 69.7%, Ball 30.3%
  • Jarren Duran: Swing 26.9%, In Play 13.0%

MIN @ CLE — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Gavin Williams vs Byron Buxton Projected: In Play — 19.8% (fair odds +406)

  • Gavin Williams: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph
  • Byron Buxton: Swing 54.7%, In Play 19.8%

HOU @ CIN — 1:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Andrew Abbott vs Jose Altuve Projected: Ball — 56.8% (fair odds -131)

  • Andrew Abbott: Zone 43.2%, Ball 56.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.4 mph
  • Jose Altuve: Swing 49.0%, In Play 11.5%

SEA @ CWS — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Davis Martin vs Brendan Donovan Projected: In Play — 17.2% (fair odds +481)

  • Davis Martin: Zone 65.6%, Ball 34.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.5 mph
  • Brendan Donovan: Swing 35.3%, In Play 17.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Logan Gilbert vs Sam Antonacci Projected: Ball — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

  • Logan Gilbert: Zone 41.7%, Ball 58.3%
  • Sam Antonacci: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%

NYY @ MIL — 2:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Logan Henderson vs Trent Grisham Projected: Strike — 66.5% (fair odds -199)

  • Logan Henderson: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.2 mph
  • Trent Grisham: Swing 15.4%, In Play 4.9%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Carlos Rodón vs Jackson Chourio Projected: In Play — 27.5% (fair odds +264)

  • Carlos Rodón: Zone 80.0%, Ball 20.0%
  • Jackson Chourio: Swing 48.0%, In Play 27.5%

CHC @ TEX — 2:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jacob deGrom vs Nico Hoerner Projected: Strike — 71.5% (fair odds -251)

  • Jacob deGrom: Zone 78.8%, Ball 21.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 97.0 mph
  • Nico Hoerner: Swing 4.3%, In Play 7.2%

PIT @ SF — 4:05 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Bubba Chandler vs Jung Hoo Lee Projected: Strike — 73.3% (fair odds -274)

  • Bubba Chandler: Zone 82.3%, Ball 17.7%
  • Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 17.4%, In Play 9.1%

ATL @ LAD — 4:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Bryce Elder vs Shohei Ohtani Projected: Ball — 47.2% (fair odds +112)

  • Bryce Elder: Zone 52.8%, Ball 47.2%
  • Shohei Ohtani: Swing 21.3%, In Play 6.3%

STL @ SD — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Walker Buehler vs JJ Wetherholt Projected: Ball — 54.8% (fair odds -121)

  • Walker Buehler: Zone 45.2%, Ball 54.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.2 mph
  • JJ Wetherholt: Swing 34.4%, In Play 6.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Leahy vs Jackson Merrill Projected: Strike — 60.2% (fair odds -151)

  • Kyle Leahy: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%
  • Jackson Merrill: Swing 83.3%, In Play 2.3%

NYM @ ARI — 4:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Juan Soto Projected: Ball — 52.8% (fair odds -112)

  • Eduardo Rodriguez: Zone 47.2%, Ball 52.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.8 mph
  • Juan Soto: Swing 20.0%, In Play 47.2%

DET @ KC — 7:20 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Noah Cameron vs Matt Vierling Projected: Ball — 53.3% (fair odds -114)

  • Noah Cameron: Zone 46.7%, Ball 53.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.6 mph
  • Matt Vierling: Swing 14.3%, In Play 15.6%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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