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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, May 11, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet May 11, 2026

First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, May 11, 2026

May 10 Results: Strike Picks: 2/4 | Ball Picks: 2/6 | In Play Picks: 1/6

❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ❌ Jarren Duran - Strike / ❌ Jordan Beck - In Play / ❌ Jose Altuve - Ball / ❌ Byron Buxton - In Play / ✅ Brendan Donovan - In Play / ❌ Sam Antonacci - Ball / ✅ Trent Grisham - Strike / ❌ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ❌ Nico Hoerner - Strike / ✅ Jung Hoo Lee - Strike / ❌ Juan Soto - Ball / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ✅ Shohei Ohtani - Ball / ✅ Matt Vierling - Ball

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 6-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch Strike Picks

NYY @ BAL: Taylor Ward vs Ryan Weathers — 65.0% (fair odds -185) Weathers 73.3% zone, Ward swings 26.2% of the time

First Pitch Ball Picks

SF @ LAD: Jung Hoo Lee vs Roki Sasaki — 49.1% (fair odds +104) Sasaki 49.1% ball rate, Lee 16.7% swing tendency

First Pitch In Play Picks

ARI @ TEX: Ketel Marte vs Nathan Eovaldi — 28.2% (fair odds +255) Marte 28.2% in-play projection vs Eovaldi (94.0 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

LAA @ CLE — 6:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Joey Cantillo vs Zach Neto Projected: First Pitch In Play — 26.5% (fair odds +277)

Joey Cantillo: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.8 mph
Zach Neto: Swing 57.6%, In Play 26.5%

NYY @ BAL — 6:35 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Brandon Young vs Trent Grisham Projected: First Pitch Strike — 58.4% (fair odds -140)

Brandon Young: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph
Trent Grisham: Swing 15.3%, In Play 4.1%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Ryan Weathers vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch Strike — 65.0% (fair odds -185)

Ryan Weathers: Zone 73.3%, Ball 26.7%
Taylor Ward: Swing 26.2%, In Play 8.3%

TB @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Drew Rasmussen vs Ernie Clement Projected: First Pitch In Play — 13.6% (fair odds +633)

Drew Rasmussen: Zone 71.1%, Ball 28.9%
Ernie Clement: Swing 25.0%, In Play 13.6%

ARI @ TEX — 8:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Nathan Eovaldi vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 28.2% (fair odds +255)

Nathan Eovaldi: Zone 73.3%, Ball 26.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.0 mph
Ketel Marte: Swing 35.4%, In Play 28.2%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael Soroka vs Brandon Nimmo Projected: First Pitch Strike — 57.5% (fair odds -136)

Michael Soroka: Zone 67.7%, Ball 32.3%
Brandon Nimmo: Swing 20.0%, In Play 10.1%

SEA @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): George Kirby vs Jose Altuve Projected: First Pitch In Play — 14.3% (fair odds +599)

George Kirby: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%
Jose Altuve: Swing 48.7%, In Play 14.3%

SF @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Roki Sasaki vs Jung Hoo Lee Projected: First Pitch Ball — 49.1% (fair odds +104)

Roki Sasaki: Zone 50.9%, Ball 49.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.4 mph
Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 16.7%, In Play 5.3%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.