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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 11, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/may-11-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-11T19:34:13.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, May 11, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 10 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 2/4 | Ball Picks: 2/6 | In Play Picks: 1/6\n>\n> ❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Xavier Edwards - In Play / ❌ Jarren Duran - Strike / ❌ Jordan Beck - In Play / ❌ Jose Altuve - Ball / ❌ Byron Buxton - In Play / ✅ Brendan Donovan - In Play / ❌ Sam Antonacci - Ball / ✅ Trent Grisham - Strike / ❌ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ❌ Nico Hoerner - Strike / ✅ Jung Hoo Lee - Strike / ❌ Juan Soto - Ball / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ✅ Shohei Ohtani - Ball / ✅ Matt Vierling - Ball\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 6-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch Strike Picks\n\n> **NYY @ BAL: Taylor Ward vs Ryan Weathers — 65.0% (fair odds -185)**\n>  Weathers 73.3% zone, Ward swings 26.2% of the time\n\n### First Pitch Ball Picks\n\n> **SF @ LAD: Jung Hoo Lee vs Roki Sasaki — 49.1% (fair odds +104)**\n>  Sasaki 49.1% ball rate, Lee 16.7% swing tendency\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **ARI @ TEX: Ketel Marte vs Nathan Eovaldi — 28.2% (fair odds +255)**\n>  Marte 28.2% in-play projection vs Eovaldi (94.0 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### LAA @ CLE — 6:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Joey Cantillo vs Zach Neto**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 26.5%** (fair odds +277)\n\n  * Joey Cantillo: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.8 mph\n  * Zach Neto: Swing 57.6%, In Play 26.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYY @ BAL — 6:35 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Brandon Young vs Trent Grisham**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 58.4%** (fair odds -140)\n\n  * Brandon Young: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph\n  * Trent Grisham: Swing 15.3%, In Play 4.1%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Ryan Weathers vs Taylor Ward**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 65.0%** (fair odds -185)\n\n  * Ryan Weathers: Zone 73.3%, Ball 26.7%\n  * Taylor Ward: Swing 26.2%, In Play 8.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TB @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Drew Rasmussen vs Ernie Clement**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 13.6%** (fair odds +633)\n\n  * Drew Rasmussen: Zone 71.1%, Ball 28.9%\n  * Ernie Clement: Swing 25.0%, In Play 13.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ARI @ TEX — 8:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Nathan Eovaldi vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 28.2%** (fair odds +255)\n\n  * Nathan Eovaldi: Zone 73.3%, Ball 26.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.0 mph\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 35.4%, In Play 28.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael Soroka vs Brandon Nimmo**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 57.5%** (fair odds -136)\n\n  * Michael Soroka: Zone 67.7%, Ball 32.3%\n  * Brandon Nimmo: Swing 20.0%, In Play 10.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SEA @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): George Kirby vs Jose Altuve**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.3%** (fair odds +599)\n\n  * George Kirby: Zone 57.1%, Ball 42.9%\n  * Jose Altuve: Swing 48.7%, In Play 14.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SF @ LAD — 10:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Roki Sasaki vs Jung Hoo Lee**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 49.1%** (fair odds +104)\n\n  * Roki Sasaki: Zone 50.9%, Ball 49.1%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.4 mph\n  * Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 16.7%, In Play 5.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Monday, May 11, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-11T19:34:14.264Z"
}