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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 10, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/may-10-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-10T19:25:10.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 10, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 9 Results: Strike Picks: 2/4 | Ball Picks: 1/4 | In Play Picks: 0/8**\n\n❌ Zach Neto - In Play / ❌ George Springer - In Play / ❌ Nick Kurtz - In Play / ✅ Gunnar Henderson - Ball / ❌ Jose Altuve - Ball / ❌ TJ Friedl - Strike / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Trea Turner - Strike / ❌ Byron Buxton - In Play / ✅ Steven Kwan - Strike / ✅ Brandon Nimmo - Strike / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - In Play / ❌ Paul Goldschmidt - In Play / ❌ Jackson Chourio - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ Jackson Merrill - Ball\n\n\nSee full track record →\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n> ⭐ **PIT @ SF: Jung Hoo Lee vs Bubba Chandler — Strike (73.3% | -274)**\n>  Chandler 82.3% zone, Lee swings 17.4% of the time\n\n> ⭐ **STL @ SD: JJ Wetherholt vs Walker Buehler — Ball (54.8% | -121)**\n>  Buehler 54.8% ball rate, Wetherholt 34.4% swing tendency\n\n> ⭐ **DET @ KC: Matt Vierling vs Noah Cameron — Ball (53.3% | -114)**\n>  Cameron 53.3% ball rate, Vierling 14.3% swing tendency\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### WSH @ MIA — 12:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Sandy Alcantara vs James Wood**\nProjected: **In Play — 20.1%** (fair odds +398)\n\n  * Sandy Alcantara: Zone 74.4%, Ball 25.6%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.4 mph\n  * James Wood: Swing 35.2%, In Play 20.1%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Cade Cavalli vs Xavier Edwards**\nProjected: **In Play — 15.5%** (fair odds +545)\n\n  * Cade Cavalli: Zone 72.2%, Ball 27.8%\n  * Xavier Edwards: Swing 30.6%, In Play 15.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### COL @ PHI — 1:35 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Cristopher Sánchez vs Jordan Beck**\nProjected: **In Play — 21.3%** (fair odds +369)\n\n  * Cristopher Sánchez: Zone 69.0%, Ball 31.0%, 1st pitch Sinker 94.6 mph\n  * Jordan Beck: Swing 40.0%, In Play 21.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TB @ BOS — 1:35 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Payton Tolle vs Chandler Simpson**\nProjected: **In Play — 28.2%** (fair odds +254)\n\n  * Payton Tolle: Zone 83.3%, Ball 16.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 96.0 mph\n  * Chandler Simpson: Swing 26.7%, In Play 28.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Nick Martinez vs Jarren Duran**\nProjected: **In Play — 13.0%** (fair odds +668)\n\n  * Nick Martinez: Zone 69.7%, Ball 30.3%\n  * Jarren Duran: Swing 26.9%, In Play 13.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIN @ CLE — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Gavin Williams vs Byron Buxton**\nProjected: **In Play — 19.8%** (fair odds +406)\n\n  * Gavin Williams: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.6 mph\n  * Byron Buxton: Swing 54.7%, In Play 19.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### HOU @ CIN — 1:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Andrew Abbott vs Jose Altuve**\nProjected: **Ball — 56.8%** (fair odds -131)\n\n  * Andrew Abbott: Zone 43.2%, Ball 56.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.4 mph\n  * Jose Altuve: Swing 49.0%, In Play 11.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SEA @ CWS — 2:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Davis Martin vs Brendan Donovan**\nProjected: **In Play — 17.2%** (fair odds +481)\n\n  * Davis Martin: Zone 65.6%, Ball 34.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.5 mph\n  * Brendan Donovan: Swing 35.3%, In Play 17.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Logan Gilbert vs Sam Antonacci**\nProjected: **Ball — 58.3%** (fair odds -140)\n\n  * Logan Gilbert: Zone 41.7%, Ball 58.3%\n  * Sam Antonacci: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYY @ MIL — 2:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Logan Henderson vs Trent Grisham**\nProjected: **Strike — 66.5%** (fair odds -199)\n\n  * Logan Henderson: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.2 mph\n  * Trent Grisham: Swing 15.4%, In Play 4.9%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Carlos Rodón vs Jackson Chourio**\nProjected: **In Play — 27.5%** (fair odds +264)\n\n  * Carlos Rodón: Zone 80.0%, Ball 20.0%\n  * Jackson Chourio: Swing 48.0%, In Play 27.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CHC @ TEX — 2:35 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jacob deGrom vs Nico Hoerner**\nProjected: **Strike — 71.5%** (fair odds -251)\n\n  * Jacob deGrom: Zone 78.8%, Ball 21.2%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 97.0 mph\n  * Nico Hoerner: Swing 4.3%, In Play 7.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PIT @ SF — 4:05 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Bubba Chandler vs Jung Hoo Lee**\nProjected: **Strike — 73.3%** (fair odds -274)\n\n  * Bubba Chandler: Zone 82.3%, Ball 17.7%\n  * Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 17.4%, In Play 9.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ATL @ LAD — 4:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Bryce Elder vs Shohei Ohtani**\nProjected: **Ball — 47.2%** (fair odds +112)\n\n  * Bryce Elder: Zone 52.8%, Ball 47.2%\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Swing 21.3%, In Play 6.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### STL @ SD — 4:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Walker Buehler vs JJ Wetherholt**\nProjected: **Ball — 54.8%** (fair odds -121)\n\n  * Walker Buehler: Zone 45.2%, Ball 54.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.2 mph\n  * JJ Wetherholt: Swing 34.4%, In Play 6.6%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Leahy vs Jackson Merrill**\nProjected: **Strike — 60.2%** (fair odds -151)\n\n  * Kyle Leahy: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%\n  * Jackson Merrill: Swing 83.3%, In Play 2.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYM @ ARI — 4:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Eduardo Rodriguez vs Juan Soto**\nProjected: **Ball — 52.8%** (fair odds -112)\n\n  * Eduardo Rodriguez: Zone 47.2%, Ball 52.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.8 mph\n  * Juan Soto: Swing 20.0%, In Play 47.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### DET @ KC — 7:20 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Noah Cameron vs Matt Vierling**\nProjected: **Ball — 53.3%** (fair odds -114)\n\n  * Noah Cameron: Zone 46.7%, Ball 53.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.6 mph\n  * Matt Vierling: Swing 14.3%, In Play 15.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Sunday, May 10, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-11T14:47:38.228Z"
}