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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 9, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/may-9-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-10T03:09:10.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, May 9, 2026\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 14-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n> ⭐ **OAK @ BAL: Gunnar Henderson vs Aaron Civale — Ball (52.0% | -108)**\n>  Civale 52.0% ball rate, Henderson 34.5% swing tendency\n\n> ⭐ **HOU @ CIN: Jose Altuve vs Chase Burns — Ball (53.3% | -114)**\n>  Burns 53.3% ball rate, Altuve 47.4% swing tendency\n\n> ⭐ **MIN @ CLE: Steven Kwan vs Joe Ryan — Strike (66.9% | -202)**\n>  Ryan 68.4% zone, Kwan swings 3.5% of the time\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### LAA @ TOR — 3:07 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Trey Yesavage vs Zach Neto**\nProjected: **In Play — 13.2%** (fair odds +656)\n\n  * Trey Yesavage: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.5 mph\n  * Zach Neto: Swing 50.4%, In Play 13.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Jack Kochanowicz vs George Springer**\nProjected: **In Play — 17.4%** (fair odds +473)\n\n  * Jack Kochanowicz: Zone 76.7%, Ball 23.3%\n  * George Springer: Swing 32.2%, In Play 17.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### OAK @ BAL — 4:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Shane Baz vs Nick Kurtz**\nProjected: **In Play — 13.5%** (fair odds +643)\n\n  * Shane Baz: Zone 55.3%, Ball 44.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.8 mph\n  * Nick Kurtz: Swing 41.7%, In Play 13.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Aaron Civale vs Gunnar Henderson**\nProjected: **Ball — 52.0%** (fair odds -108)\n\n  * Aaron Civale: Zone 48.0%, Ball 52.0%\n  * Gunnar Henderson: Swing 34.5%, In Play 8.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### HOU @ CIN — 4:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Chase Burns vs Jose Altuve**\nProjected: **Ball — 53.3%** (fair odds -114)\n\n  * Chase Burns: Zone 46.7%, Ball 53.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 98.1 mph\n  * Jose Altuve: Swing 47.4%, In Play 11.1%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Arrighetti vs TJ Friedl**\nProjected: **Strike — 66.7%** (fair odds -200)\n\n  * Spencer Arrighetti: Zone 72.7%, Ball 27.3%\n  * TJ Friedl: Swing 9.2%, In Play 6.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### WSH @ MIA — 4:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Janson Junk vs James Wood**\nProjected: **In Play — 16.8%** (fair odds +494)\n\n  * Janson Junk: Zone 65.2%, Ball 34.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph\n  * James Wood: Swing 35.8%, In Play 16.8%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Richard Lovelady vs Xavier Edwards**\nProjected: _insufficient first-pitch data_\n\n* * *\n\n### COL @ PHI — 6:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Aaron Nola vs Edouard Julien**\nProjected: **No Pick — —** (fair odds —)\n\n  * Aaron Nola: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph\n  * Edouard Julien: Swing 36.1%, In Play 11.8%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Kyle Freeland vs Trea Turner**\nProjected: **Strike — 62.8%** (fair odds -169)\n\n  * Kyle Freeland: Zone 73.0%, Ball 27.0%\n  * Trea Turner: Swing 15.1%, In Play 10.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIN @ CLE — 6:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Tanner Bibee vs Byron Buxton**\nProjected: **In Play — 18.2%** (fair odds +451)\n\n  * Tanner Bibee: Zone 60.0%, Ball 40.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.4 mph\n  * Byron Buxton: Swing 54.1%, In Play 18.2%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Joe Ryan vs Steven Kwan**\nProjected: **Strike — 66.9%** (fair odds -202)\n\n  * Joe Ryan: Zone 68.4%, Ball 31.6%\n  * Steven Kwan: Swing 3.5%, In Play 1.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CHC @ TEX — 7:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jack Leiter vs Nico Hoerner**\nProjected: **No Pick — —** (fair odds —)\n\n  * Jack Leiter: Zone 56.2%, Ball 43.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.8 mph\n  * Nico Hoerner: Swing 4.5%, In Play 5.6%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Edward Cabrera vs Brandon Nimmo**\nProjected: **Strike — 61.8%** (fair odds -162)\n\n  * Edward Cabrera: Zone 73.6%, Ball 26.4%\n  * Brandon Nimmo: Swing 18.6%, In Play 11.8%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### DET @ KC — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Michael Wacha vs Kevin McGonigle**\nProjected: **In Play — 45.1%** (fair odds +122)\n\n  * Michael Wacha: Zone 76.3%, Ball 23.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 91.6 mph\n  * Kevin McGonigle: Swing 31.2%, In Play 45.1%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Burch Smith vs Maikel Garcia**\nProjected: _insufficient first-pitch data_\n\n* * *\n\n### SEA @ CWS — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Anthony Kay vs Rob Refsnyder**\nProjected: _insufficient first-pitch data_\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Luis Castillo vs Sam Antonacci**\nProjected: _insufficient first-pitch data_\n\n* * *\n\n### NYY @ MIL — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Harrison vs Paul Goldschmidt**\nProjected: **In Play — 20.8%** (fair odds +380)\n\n  * Kyle Harrison: Zone 91.7%, Ball 8.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 94.1 mph\n  * Paul Goldschmidt: Swing 30.0%, In Play 20.8%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Cam Schlittler vs Jackson Chourio**\nProjected: **Ball — 50.0%** (fair odds -100)\n\n  * Cam Schlittler: Zone 50.0%, Ball 50.0%\n  * Jackson Chourio: Swing 48.5%, In Play 12.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### STL @ SD — 7:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Randy Vásquez vs JJ Wetherholt**\nProjected: **No Pick — —** (fair odds —)\n\n  * Randy Vásquez: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.7 mph\n  * JJ Wetherholt: Swing 35.5%, In Play 9.7%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Dustin May vs Jackson Merrill**\nProjected: **Ball — 46.7%** (fair odds +114)\n\n  * Dustin May: Zone 53.3%, Ball 46.7%\n  * Jackson Merrill: Swing 80.0%, In Play 3.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYM @ ARI — 7:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Merrill Kelly vs Juan Soto**\nProjected: _insufficient first-pitch data_\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Clay Holmes vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **In Play — 16.0%** (fair odds +523)\n\n  * Clay Holmes: Zone 60.5%, Ball 39.5%\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 36.5%, In Play 16.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PIT @ SF — 9:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Landen Roupp vs Oneil Cruz**\nProjected: **No Pick — —** (fair odds —)\n\n  * Landen Roupp: Zone 62.1%, Ball 37.9%, 1st pitch Sinker 92.7 mph\n  * Oneil Cruz: Swing 46.3%, In Play 9.1%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Braxton Ashcraft vs Jung Hoo Lee**\nProjected: **No Pick — —** (fair odds —)\n\n  * Braxton Ashcraft: Zone 60.9%, Ball 39.1%\n  * Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 18.2%, In Play 6.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ATL @ LAD — 9:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Blake Snell vs Mauricio Dubón**\nProjected: _insufficient first-pitch data_\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Strider vs Shohei Ohtani**\nProjected: **No Pick — —** (fair odds —)\n\n  * Spencer Strider: Zone 54.2%, Ball 45.8%\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Swing 21.4%, In Play 6.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Saturday, May 9, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-10T03:09:10.949Z"
}