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Longform Stories

All Eyes on Regulation

The regulatory picture is quietly improving for crypto, and that is where most of the market is now looking for its next catalyst.

4h ago·5 min read·957 words

Could Inflation Exceed Napier’s 4%?

"The Anatomy of a Bear Market" showed that the stockmarket starts to wobble when inflation exceeds 4%.

1d ago·7 min read·1278 words

Venture: Update

The curious thing about the latest rally is how the market has been so strong despite having such weak breadth. This week, we are reducing some risk.

2d ago·3 min read·539 words

Animal Spirits

Our next company dominates a market segment that has been with us for millennia and will remain a major feature of human life forever.

Jun 3·4 min read·601 words

Venture Portfolio Update

Today, I offer a short update on a portfolio holding.

Jun 3·1 min read·41 words

Bitcoin’s Quantum Threat, Anti-Bubble, or Energy Costs?

The past week has been tough, with BTC down 18% since the May peak. In this update, I will explore some of the reasons.

Jun 3·5 min read·979 words

Where There’s a Bubble, There’s an Anti-Bubble

For one group of stocks to surge exponentially, capital must come from elsewhere. This we call the anti-bubble.

Jun 2·4 min read·698 words

The AI Boom Leads Bitcoin and Gold

Equities have broken away from Bitcoin and Gold over the past fortnight, driven by technology hardware linked to the AI boom, which is sucking capital away from the rest of the market.

Jun 1·10 min read·1970 words

Venture: Sports and Trainers

The big sport brands have all picked up in recent months, countering the bearish narrative around consumer weakness. We've picked our favourite.

Jun 1·3 min read·434 words

Zcash, Monero, and the Growing Demand for Financial Privacy

This Token Takeaway will analyse the fundamentals of privacy coins, uncover the drivers of the recent surge, and explore the regulatory landscape.

May 31·11 min read·2163 words

A Technical Look at Gold

In this issue, I will explore the technicals behind the gold price, which are far from normal, using our ByteTrend charts.

May 29·7 min read·1262 words

Back to Bear

Bitcoin’s ByteTrend Score has dropped to a 0 for the first time since April. The bear has returned.

May 28·3 min read·420 words

The Might of the Indices

The AI boom is being sold to the market at sky-high prices, and the resulting concentration in market indices matches that of major historical bubbles.

May 28·12 min read·2293 words

Venture: Building Robots

Robotics is the real-world application of AI. It is an exciting prospect to know that in the coming years, robots will be running around us.

May 26·2 min read·235 words

Europe’s Digital Landlord

Today’s note recommends a particular kind of quality business, and it’s one that has reached a powerful inflection point.

May 22·2 min read·262 words

Client Feedback on the Venture “Portfolio”

Thank you to Bytetree Pro clients who shared their questions and suggestions. In this short note, I have responded to your feedback.

May 20·11 min read·2150 words

Bitcoin and KOSPI

While Bitcoin and KOSPI have historically been correlated, they diverged last summer, with the attention shifting towards chips.

May 20·2 min read·391 words

Bonds and Politics

As inflationary pressures mount in this commodity bull market, bond yields keep making new highs, squeezing public budgets.

May 19·11 min read·2100 words

Venture: Commodities

The second cheapest commodity group vs gold is agriculture, and that is what I will discuss today.

May 18·2 min read·321 words

Quality Portfolio Update

Quality stocks are built for the long-term. The stockmarket is in a bubble environment, not dissimilar to the late 1990s dotcom boom. During that time, quality lagged the market, only to be revitalise…

May 13·1 min read·82 words

Bitcoin Nears Bull Market as Price Tests 200-Day Moving Average

The bitcoin price has neared the 200-day moving average for the first time since October.

May 13·1 min read·25 words

Bubble Alert

The energy scare will continue to put upward pressure on yields. What allocation options do investors have?

May 12·1 min read·19 words

Do You Believe in America?

Some companies need little introduction.

May 12·1 min read·10 words

Venture: Japan Internet

Semiconductor stocks are seemingly the only game in town, driven by booming chip prices, in the scramble to generate compute.

May 11·1 min read·23 words

AI Agents: Crypto’s Next Wave?

There is a new wave of innovation emerging in the crypto industry: AI Agents.

May 7·1 min read·19 words

The Church and the Casino

The market always feels like a church with a casino attached. People can move between the church and the casino.

May 6·1 min read·25 words

Venture: Portfolio and Track Record

I have decided that the time has come to express the performance of ByteTree Venture as a portfolio. That means not just buy and sell prices with dividends, but also weights.

May 5·1 min read·36 words

Bitcoin Leads the Rally

Bitcoin has led global equities in April and has proved resilient in a haphazard market environment.

May 1·1 min read·20 words

Navigating Crypto: ByteTree’s Guide to 18,000+ Cryptocurrencies

This Token Takeaway will walk you through token categories, tokenomics, and core valuation metrics.

Apr 30·1 min read·21 words

The Value in Values

This recommendation has an impressive and enduring culture, layered into one of the world's best business models.

Apr 29·1 min read·21 words

Tudor Jones: “Bitcoin is, unequivocally, the best inflation hedge”

The point investors seem to be forgetting is that Bitcoin has beaten everything and is poised to do so again.

Apr 29·1 min read·29 words

Living in the Black Box

It doesn’t matter whose war it is; it soon becomes everyone’s problem. After eight weeks of energy shortages, the physical supply starts to bite.

Apr 28·1 min read·29 words

Venture: Update

The problem for value investors in this market is not the lack of cheap companies to buy, but the lack of interest in them.

Apr 27·1 min read·26 words

Four Years of BOLD

There is no other major, highly liquid asset pair with these qualities than Bitcoin and Gold.

Apr 26·1 min read·20 words

The Gold to BOLD Switch

As the price of gold sits back in the market recovery, I felt it was a good time to check in on the Atlas Pulse gold dial

Apr 23·1 min read·32 words

Venture: Update

The April market recovery has been impressive, but less so for gold and the metals.

Apr 22·1 min read·17 words

Bitcoin Welcomes Charles Schwab

There’s nothing like the financial establishment giving its seal of approval for the space to be taken more seriously.

Apr 22·1 min read·23 words

Smaller Companies and Technology in Emerging Markets

This week, we make a change in each portfolio to capture the developing investment themes.

Apr 21·1 min read·22 words

Venture: Payments

The global payments sector was a strong growth story pre-pandemic. Now, payment stocks are showing promise again.

Apr 20·1 min read·19 words

Venture: FinTech

I have highlighted the increase in the money supply, and this company is likely to participate in a strong momentum-led environment.

Apr 16·1 min read·23 words

Adding Momentum

FLASH NOTE; The April rally in stocks has been strong, and fears of a bear market have subsided. The energy crisis in the Middle East has not gone away, but the types of stocks that have led the rall…

Apr 16·1 min read·61 words

Bitcoin Welcomes Goldman Sachs

The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF raised $86m in its first week, and now Goldman Sachs will soon launch their Bitcoin ETF.

Apr 15·1 min read·25 words

The Money Supply Boosts Markets

While we humans react negatively to bad news, it’s one of those times to remind ourselves what drives financial markets.

Apr 14·1 min read·25 words

Venture: Update

Gold is a store of value, but aluminium is more of a store of energy. It makes me wonder how much things could change should this energy crisis persist.

Apr 13·1 min read·31 words

The ByteTree Broker Survey 2026

ByteTree clients often ask me: “Which is the best broker?” So, a year ago, we launched our annual Broker Survey. We are uniquely positioned to do this because ByteTree clients manage their investments…

Apr 12·1 min read·85 words

Ceasefire

Bitcoin’s ByteTrend Score rises to a 3 following the ceasefire in Iran. A post-February new high above $75k would boost confidence.

Apr 8·1 min read·22 words

Adding Equities to Portfolios

The ceasefire has been confirmed, and that has been well received by the bond market, which is important.

Apr 8·1 min read·22 words

Stay Cautious

The oil system is still under pressure, but the market is now functioning more effectively.

Apr 7·1 min read·17 words

ByteTree Quarterly Investor Letter - Q1 2026

With so much uncertainty, I believe it is right to maintain lower exposure to risky assets and a wider degree of diversification than normal.

Apr 2·1 min read·31 words

The Quality Opportunity Grows

The section of our investable universe that we would consider buying has grown, giving us a better opportunity set going forward.

Apr 2·1 min read·25 words

Bitcoin Welcomes Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley has joined the Bitcoin ETF rush. That’s the first major investment bank with a Bitcoin ETF, which steps things up a gear.

Apr 1·1 min read·28 words

Emerging Quality

Our next recommendation, more than any other, exemplifies and is driving the catch-up in Latin American growth.

Apr 1·1 min read·19 words

Bitcoin and Gold Rebound

While Bitcoin and Gold travel along different paths, it is notable how BOLD has historically been highly correlated with the global money supply.

Apr 1·1 min read·27 words

Food for Thought

The winds have changed, and we have reset the sails in The Multi-Asset Investor, boosting commodities and reducing equity exposure.

Mar 31·1 min read·23 words

Venture: Soft Commodities

For the first time, Venture looks at agricultural commodity prices and selects the one most likely to perform during this oil shock.

Mar 30·1 min read·25 words

Gold and Oil in the 1970s

These are times to think differently - investors should treat the 60/40 portfolio with caution.

Mar 29·1 min read·21 words

Adding Commodities to the Portfolios

Over 30 years, stocks have beaten commodities fourfold. But when stockmarkets come under pressure, commodities provide a more reliable source of diversification and return.

Mar 27·1 min read·29 words

Revisiting Crypto Equities

Since the last bull market began, it is remarkable how crypto stocks have beaten Bitcoin by 31%.

Mar 25·1 min read·20 words

Cash Is King

Markets remain risky. The situation from earlier this year has changed. Since the war in Iran began, the only safe havens have been energy and cash.

Mar 24·1 min read·29 words

Venture: Transport Tech

ISSUE 116;  This company is a leader in transport technology. It is dirt cheap, with significant cash generation and has bought back 22% of its stock since 2023. The price has been resilient during t…

Mar 23·1 min read·45 words

Risk Reduction

The UK 10-year bond yield has made a new high, above the level last seen in 2008. This is happening around the world, but is most profoundly felt by the UK.

Mar 20·1 min read·33 words

Risk Reduction

Spot oil, the price today, is rising sharply, and the greater concern is that future oil prices, what you pay for oil delivery next year, are also rising.

Mar 19·1 min read·30 words

Bitcoin – The Hedge Against War

Bitcoin has been the best performing major asset, oil excepted, since the invasion of Iran began. When will institutional investors finally take note?

Mar 18·1 min read·29 words

Quality Assurance

Our next recommendation is a globally diversified TIC that serves multiple sectors, reducing its vulnerability to weakness in any area.

Mar 18·1 min read·22 words

What Happened in 1974?

The energy crisis began when Arab oil-producing nations imposed an embargo on countries supporting Israel during this war.

Mar 17·1 min read·22 words

Venture: Digital Assets

The price of Bitcoin is rebounding, and if that continues, crypto-related stocks will follow suit.

Mar 16·1 min read·18 words

Quality's Peace Dividend

In the short term, quality stocks have similar market reactions to bonds. They are stable companies with resilient cash flows, which can be safely forecasted long into the future. Thus, they are the m…

Mar 13·1 min read·81 words

Venture: Market Uncertainty

ISSUE 114; The risk for investors is that the market breaks. The world index is falling, while the oil price, bond yields and the VIX are rising. WORLD INDEX

Mar 13·1 min read·32 words

Flash Note

Oil is back above $100, despite the US strategic reserve being unleashed.

Mar 13·1 min read·14 words

Venture: Asian Agriculture

ISSUE 113;  The War in Iran is driving commodity prices higher. Energy is society’s input cost, and as it rises, so does everything else. Agriculture is feeling the pinch from rising fertiliser price…

Mar 12·1 min read·55 words

20 Million Bitcoins Mined; 1 Million to Go

This week, 20 million Bitcoins have been mined, one million to go, and it’s the 200th issue of ByteFolio. Where did the time go?

Mar 11·1 min read·32 words

Risk Reduction

The dead cat bounce in the stockmarket is unconvincing despite the sharp fall in the oil price.

Mar 11·1 min read·19 words

Sanctuary in Asia

The ByteTree Portfolios have been on the right side of the big trends over the past 15 months, but on the wrong side over the past 7 days. The dollar has risen alongside oil, and both have slid back i…

Mar 10·1 min read·45 words

Venture: Crisis and Opportunities

There is a tail risk that this conflict drags on. In that scenario, equity markets feel mispriced. 

Mar 9·1 min read·21 words

Risk Reduction

FLASH NOTE; As I wrote on Tuesday, it is clear that the stockmarket market has had its best days this year. I do not know how long this distress will last, or indeed if it will get worse from here. W…

Mar 6·1 min read·75 words

Crypto Needs Clarity

A durable catalyst would be regulatory certainty in the United States, specifically the CLARITY Act becoming law.

Mar 4·1 min read·20 words

Bitcoin and Gold Record Divergence

Gold’s volatility has risen sharply while Bitcoin’s has remained stable, and so the BOLD Index has increased exposure to Bitcoin at the expense of Gold.

Mar 3·1 min read·30 words

Every Cloud has a Silver Lining

Events in the Middle East have not been well-received by financial markets. The greatest fear stems from rising energy costs and the uncertainty about when they will end.

Mar 3·1 min read·34 words

Venture: Update - Middle East

The missile strikes on Iran have stirred markets with large moves in natural gas, oil, and precious metals. The dollar is also up.

Mar 2·1 min read·28 words

Gold’s Risk Rises

Gold today is not just in a bull market, but a super bull market. Investors are buying gold, as are the central banks and the Chinese, and that is a powerful combination.

Mar 1·1 min read·35 words

Ethereum: On Track for Mass Adoption

This Token Takeaway explores Ethereum’s technical evolution, the growth of its Layer-2 ecosystem, and analyses ETH’s positioning as the default monetary unit of decentralised finance.

Feb 26·1 min read·31 words

Evaluating Catastrophic Risk

Defensive, high margin, and with a long history of outperforming the market in times of stress, this market leader in reinsurance is a natural fit for the ByteTree Quality strategy.

Feb 26·1 min read·33 words

Bitcoin Has Never Been This Oversold vs Gold

Bitcoin has never been this oversold versus Gold in history. Contrarians should take notice.

Feb 25·1 min read·22 words

An Uptrend Brews in the Bond Market

The bond market has started to rally, and this matters because investors once again have a choice.

Feb 24·1 min read·24 words

SolGold (SOLG)

SolGold is in discussions about a takeover by Jiangxi Copper. It held a Court Meeting and a General Meeting on 23 February 2026 to vote on the scheme of arrangement (the legal mechanism for takeover).…

Feb 24·1 min read·85 words

Venture: EM Chemicals

This is a cyclical industrial recovery, and today’s company is well placed to benefit. What’s more, it trades on a rock-bottom valuation.

Feb 23·1 min read·25 words

Ethereum Is Scaling Fast

The combination of higher transaction throughput and lower gas fees suggests that Ethereum's scalability upgrades are working as intended.

Feb 18·1 min read·23 words

Sticking With Staples

American Consumer Staples stocks are up 15.4% in the last three months, while US tech stocks are down 1.7%. STAPLES VERSUS TECH Low volatility stocks, which are often defensive by nature and high-q…

Feb 18·1 min read·84 words

Strengthening the Foundations

This week, I take profits from biotech and Japanese banks, and shift into two of the world’s greatest companies.

Feb 17·1 min read·22 words

Venture: UK Chemicals

Chemicals are rallying as part of the global recovery in cyclical stocks. We researched the opportunities and have found another gem.

Feb 16·1 min read·24 words

Flash Note: Voting Advice

A shareholder vote is near for one of our long-term holdings. Advice is laid out below.

Feb 12·1 min read·20 words

Bitcoin and Gold in 2026 with Chris Wood

This week, ByteTree held a must-watch conversation with none other than Chris Wood, the Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies. He is the author of the widely renowned “Greed and Fear” weekly new…

Feb 12·1 min read·95 words

The Black Hats Don’t Have Quantum Computers

Bitcoin’s ByteTrend Score remains zero, after a severe fall in recent days. This move has been linked to the general malaise in tech stocks, which makes sense to me.

Feb 11·1 min read·36 words

Public over Private

Listed private equity companies have come under pressure. The sector touts a good story, and forecasts a strong IPO market in 2026, yet the businesses behind them, which hold large stakes in private c…

Feb 10·1 min read·41 words

Venture: US Sporting Goods

We’ve found one that is undervalued, ridding itself of underperforming brands, and repairing its balance sheet.

Feb 9·1 min read·20 words

Quality: Flash Note

The technology sector has come under pressure this week, with sharp falls across several stocks, not just in software, but also in growth.

Feb 5·1 min read·26 words

Regulated Monopolies

Through its roads, airports, and energy and physical infrastructure, our next recommendation serves 90% of our lives.

Feb 5·1 min read·19 words

Gold Driven by Geopolitics, not Macroeconomics

Atlas Pulse Gold Report Issue 110; I have little doubt that this boom in precious metals, while clearly overbought and excitable, is not a normal bubble. It cannot be easily attributed to macroeconom…

Jan 30·1 min read·94 words