Cash Is King

Markets remain risky. The situation from earlier this year has changed. Since the war in Iran began, the only safe havens have been energy and cash. There is a temptation to increase energy, but the trouble is that it would be heavily exposed should we get an outbreak of peace.

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As we entered the fourth week of hostilities in the Gulf, Trump announced that he was in talks with Iran. That was denied by Iran, but we learned that talks were held in Pakistan with other parties. Presumably, that somehow ties in with the prospects for regime change.

While Iran’s military capabilities have been severely damaged, they are still firing missiles at their neighbours, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and stockmarkets are on edge. The announcement held off the market sell-off for another day, but markets are a way off from pricing in an outbreak of peace.

The VIX Index, a measure of fear driven by the cost of options, remains elevated. For confidence to reinvest, I need to see indicators such as this back on a stable footing.

The VIX Index

Source: Bloomberg

For us, the notable shift in markets has been gold versus oil. In February, an ounce of gold bought over 70 barrels of oil, even more than during the pandemic, when oil was practically free at one point. Today, that ounce buys just 43 barrels, which is a major change.

Gold vs Oil

Source: Bloomberg

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