20 Million Bitcoins Mined; 1 Million to Go

ByteFolio Issue 200;

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This issue covers HyperLiquid (HYPE) and Render Network (RENDER).

This week, 20 million Bitcoins have been mined, one million to go, and it’s the 200th issue of ByteFolio. Where did the time go?

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Bitcoin’s ByteTrend Score has risen to a 2, proving resilience during the Iran War. Will this last?

Bitcoin

Source: Bloomberg

Like Bitcoin, software is virtual, and wars remind us that the digital side is more insulated from disruption than the real world. In that sense, recent events have been supportive. Bitcoin has traded in line with the software sector over the past five years, with the same performance, meaning $100 invested in Bitcoin or software stocks has had the same result. I find it hard to believe that Bitcoin drives the software industry; it is presumably more likely that it is the other way around.

Bitcoin vs Software – Five Years

Source: Bloomberg

Add in one more year, and Bitcoin has returned 5x more. Looking back, 2020/21 was a year that saw a sharp upward revaluation. Not only has Bitcoin held on to these excess returns, but the expectation is that this will happen again.

Bitcoin vs Software – Six Years

Source: Bloomberg

The five-year data captures the end of the last cycle without much of the previous upcycle. Meanwhile, the six-year cycle captures that, and the differences are staggering. There may not even be a Bitcoin cycle at all, but generally speaking, markets have cycles, and in recent years, Bitcoin has been a key measure of market liquidity. In any event, the low should happen in 2026, and it may have already happened. The odds have risen.

Bitcoin Cycles

Source: Bloomberg

The global wealth management industry looks after $170 trillion dollars in assets. Their exposure to Bitcoin is close to zero, and this will have to change. It is my firm belief that they are coming, and that will drive prices much higher.

Bitcoin in Circulation

Source: Glassnode

20 million down, one million to go.

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