SPC MD 1028

MD 1028 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY Mesoscale Discussion 1028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...lower Ohio River Valley into the mid-Mississippi Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081839Z - 082045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may bring a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado through this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts a well-defined MCV located southwest of St. Louis, MO. Widely scattered to scattered convection was ongoing downstream of this MCV from east-central IL southward into the mid-Mississippi Valley along a weak surface trough/wind shift, with a marginally more organized convective band located in east-central Illinois recently producing a measured 42 kt wind gust. Expectation is for this convection to evolve east-northeastward through this afternoon. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, a very moist low-level air mass is contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg. With latest objective analysis depicting pockets of modestly steeper low-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km and PWATs around 2 inches, isolated strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph (and perhaps a localized damaging wind gust) may occur with water-loaded downbursts. While weak effective shear (generally less than 20-25 kts) will limit overall convective organization, a brief tornado or landspout also cannot be ruled out should a more robust low-level updraft interact with enhanced surface vertical vorticity or weakly-curved, low-level hodographs in the vicinity of the aforementioned weak surface trough/wind shift. Watch issuance is not anticipated owing to the expectation for limited severe coverage/magnitude. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... LAT...LON 35818893 35898924 36138936 36698934 37228927 38778893 39218876 39868852 40178830 40328809 40408781 40378754 39898707 39168677 38408671 37908676 37578686 37088702 36558745 36058834 35888874 35818893 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more