SPC MD 866

MD 0866 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0866 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern New Mexico into West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262328Z - 270100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for sporadic damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail for the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms have developed along a weak boundary late this afternoon in the vicinity of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in southeastern New Mexico/West Texas. This boundary demarcates the western periphery of a corridor of enhanced low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F), which is supporting weak buoyancy (generally 500-1000 J/kg across the region. Modest effective shear upstream of a mid/upper trough axis (20-25 kts per latest mesoanalysis) is sufficient to support some organization of updrafts into multicells and perhaps marginal supercell structures. Steep low- and mid-level lapse rates will promote a threat for sporadic damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. A landspout also cannot be ruled out should a more robust, low-level updraft interact with enhanced surface vertical vorticity along this boundary. Thunderstorm activity should then gradually wane after another 1-2 hours owing to low-level nocturnal cooling/stabilization. Given the limited magnitude and the expected short-term nature of the severe threat, watch issuance is unlikely. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 32140467 32350460 32620427 32760388 32730334 32600301 32110279 31110269 30410254 30110244 29590256 29170280 29070301 29230349 29710389 30460435 30970468 31540485 31850479 32140467 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more