SPC MD 963

MD 0963 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX Mesoscale Discussion 0963 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026 Areas affected...Parts of south-central and eastern NM into west TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022248Z - 030115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and localized severe gusts will continue into the evening. DISCUSSION...Several slow-moving but vigorous storms are ongoing from parts of south-central/eastern NM into Far West TX as of 2230 UTC, while more isolated strong storms have moved into the western TX Panhandle. Strong heating and relatively moist low-level east-southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates has resulted in moderate to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg in place outside of areas already influenced by convective outflow. Deep-layer flow is generally weak, but the backed low-level flow veering to weak south-southwesterlies aloft is supporting effective shear of 20-25 kt, with locally greater values over parts of NM. In conjunction with the favorable instability, this magnitude of deep-layer will continue to support potential for strong multicells and perhaps a transient slow-moving supercell, with attendant potential for isolated hail and localized severe gusts. Some consolidation of outflow is possible with time, which could result in a somewhat broader area of strong to locally severe gusts from eastern NM into parts of west TX this evening, before convection generally weakens with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 30920518 32200594 33330650 33960465 34660449 35080352 35320312 35830269 36400204 36370169 36060146 35540134 33760218 31830304 29550262 29030308 29180368 29550425 29840455 30490498 30920518 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more