SPC MD 907

MD 0907 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST OK...AND THE ROLLING PLAINS Mesoscale Discussion 0907 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected...Parts of the eastern TX Panhandle...southwest OK...and the Rolling Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302047Z - 302245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts are possible with any storms that develop this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is quickly deepening along a north/south-oriented dryline in parts of the central/eastern TX Panhandle into the Cap Rock and Rolling Plains. Confidence is increasing that isolated thunderstorms will develop over the next hour or so. Ahead of the dryline, temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid lower 60s dewpoints, yielding a moderately unstable pre-convective air mass. This buoyancy, coupled with around 30 kt of effective shear, will conditionally favor a couple organized cells capable of producing large hail and locally severe gusts. It is unclear if a watch will be needed, given the potentially isolated storm coverage, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 33020118 33570117 34520103 34990090 35330068 35470029 35429953 35199918 34449902 33839914 33069944 32799983 32820087 33020118 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more