SPC MD 910

MD 0910 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0910 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected...Portions of the Edwards Plateau of southern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302231Z - 310030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across the Big Bend/Edwards Plateau region may be very isolated, but the downstream environment may support intense convection through late evening. Watch issuance is currently not expected given limited storm coverage. DISCUSSION...Convection has been percolating along a dryline across the Big Bend/Edwards Plateau over the past couple of hours. Although deep initiation has struggled to remain sustained, lightning trends within a couple of deeper convective cores east/southeast of Fort Stockton, TX have increased over the past 20 minutes, hinting at a higher potential for sustained convection. If mature thunderstorms can be established, they will quickly migrate into an environment very favorable for intense convection (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg with elongated hodographs featuring 45 knots of effective bulk shear). Within this environment, splitting supercells appear probable and will pose a threat for large to very large hail as well as severe gusts. Given weak synoptic-scale forcing for ascent, it remains to be seen whether these more recent attempts at sustained convection will succeed or whether storm coverage will be more than a storm or two. Because of these concerns watch issuance is currently not anticipated, but trends will be monitored. ..Moore/Guyer.. 05/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29680273 29710286 29870297 30150285 30870231 31910093 32010035 31999996 31779981 31469980 30929999 30520041 30120094 29910144 29790183 29790230 29750249 29680273 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more