SPC MD 840

MD 0840 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0840 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 Areas affected...portions of West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232002Z - 232200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon. One or more clusters with a risk for hail and damaging gusts is expected. The need for a WW is unclear. DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, visible and radar imagery showed convection increasing in coverage from the Davis Mountains into parts of southwestern and West TX. Strong heating and weak ascent from a subtle subtropical shortwave trough should remove lingering inhibition over the next couple of hours. Ongoing high-based convection and its associated outflow should continue and may strengthen as additional storms develop over the southern High Plains and Edwards Plateau within the destabilizing air mass. Convective coverage should continue to increase this afternoon with a few stronger multicells and clusters becoming established. Steep mid-level lapse rates above 8.5 C/km (12z DRT sounding) will support strong multi cell updrafts with isolated hail potential. Surface winds and flow aloft are quite light suggesting storm organization will be episodic. Deep-layer shear is generally weak (EBWD <25 kt), but the degree of buoyancy (forecast MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) and steep lapse rates could favor a risk for damaging winds, especially if substantial clustering of storms can occur. Given the expected increase in convective coverage, some severe risk is evident this afternoon and continuing into the evening hours. CAM guidance shows initial scattered storms gradually coalescing into a few stronger clusters and spreading eastward this evening. While some severe risk is possible, the lack of broader storm organization suggests a watch is possible but not overly likely in the short term. Convective trends will be monitored should the need for a watch become apparent. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30730294 31340278 32220313 32590303 33040207 32950152 32600058 31630026 31030044 30330082 29970121 29900237 29950305 30730294 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more