SPC MD 831

MD 0831 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0831 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 230030Z - 230200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for damaging/severe wind gusts and large hail for at least another couple of hours. Watch issuance remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms remain ongoing across portions of Edwards Plateau along/ahead of a dryline. The environment preceding this convection remains moderately to strongly unstable with 2000-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE analyzed via the latest objective analysis. 20-30 kts of effective shear is sufficient to continue supporting transient supercell structures and multicells/clusters. Coupled with steep low- and mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by the 00z DRT observed sounding), this will continue to promote a risk for damaging/severe wind gusts and large hail with ongoing convection. While the onset of low-level nocturnal cooling/stabilization should begin to temper convective activity/intensity, there is some potential for one or more convective clusters to persist for another couple of hours, especially the storms now near Edwards County where stronger westerly flow aloft is supporting greater effective shear (35+ kts), which may promote locally greater severe potential. Given the isolated nature of ongoing convection, watch issuance remains unlikely at this time. Trends will continue to be monitored, however. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30060137 30650135 31480117 31690102 31860072 31920051 31880027 31779996 31499977 30919964 30549958 30059960 29679976 29469999 29400046 29450096 29670128 30060137 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more