SPC MD 868

MD 0868 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0868 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Areas affected...portions of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270006Z - 270130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Potential for strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will continue for another 1-2 hours. Downstream watch issuance is unlikely, however. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery depicts the continued eastward propagation of a convective cluster across portions of central Texas as of 0000 UTC. The environment ahead of this activity remains modestly unstable (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), but stronger upper-level flow and greater effective shear remain displaced farther to the south, with only 20-25 kts of effective shear analyzed across the discussion area. This is likely inhibiting the overall intensity and organization of this cluster, with radar data from KGRK indicating that the system outflow continues to largely precede the ongoing convection. Despite this, some potential for strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts may continue for another couple of hours. Isolated large hail may also be possible, particularly with any more robust, discrete convection that precedes this cluster. More limited mid-level lapse rates (generally less than 7 C/km) and the aforementioned modest effective shear should largely limit this potential, however. Trends will continue to be monitored, but downstream watch issuance is currently unlikely. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 29899907 30249921 30429898 30799845 31009832 31419840 31519840 31689824 31759795 31829752 31759705 31449685 31119678 30609686 30199716 29989755 29859811 29819861 29899907 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more