SPC MD 856

MD 0856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS Mesoscale Discussion 0856 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Areas affected...portions of the central Great Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252213Z - 260015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may bring a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Latest radar/visible satellite imagery depicts isolated thunderstorms evolving within a broader cumulus field extending across portions of the central High/Great Plains. Modifying the 18z LBF observed sounding with the latest surface observations depicts a deep, well-mixed boundary layer profile, with weak buoyancy (around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE), minimal remaining inhibition, and an LCL above 3.5 km. While generally weak shear (generally less than 20-25 kts) is expected to largely limit updraft organization, the thermodynamic environment will favor efficient evaporative cooling and the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. An instance or two of large hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest cores given steep mid-level lapse rates. Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to evolve in this corridor over the next couple of hours, with some potential for clustering along outflow boundaries. Latest surface analysis reveals a corridor of better low-level moisture and instability farther east into eastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota. Despite greater buoyancy, latest mesoanalysis and observed soundings/ACARs profiles indicate lingering capping across this region. Given this, it remains uncertain whether storms will develop/evolve eastward into this corridor of more favorable moisture/buoyancy. Should this occur, however, modestly greater effective shear and MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg would support an increased threat for large hail with eastward extent along with a threat for damaging wind gusts. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time given the current expectation for severe magnitude/coverage to remain limited. Trends will continue to be monitored, however. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 40690228 42300073 42610035 42799992 42849881 42709786 42479726 42069701 41729734 41249809 40759884 39970011 38900132 38650176 38660223 38680272 38940300 39420299 40690228 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more