SPC MD 832

MD 0832 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY Mesoscale Discussion 0832 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Texas Big Country Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 230059Z - 230230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Potential for damaging/severe wind gusts may develop eastward in association with a loosely-organized band of convection. Trends are being monitored for potential downstream watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has gradually increased over the past hour across portions of northwest Texas along the eastern edge of a consolidated cold pool. While cooling surface temperatures and increasing inhibition are noted ahead of this convection via the latest surface observations and objective analysis, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and modest westerly effective shear of 20-30 kts may support the continued eastward propagation of this developing convective band. Should this occur, the primary severe threat would be damaging/severe wind gusts; although, it remains uncertain as to whether this band will attain more than loose organization. Some risk for isolated large hail may also persist with the strongest updrafts. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32640096 32780096 32880085 33110069 33350053 33550048 33760052 33870066 33930089 33970109 34030119 34150125 34300109 34520057 34650011 34699952 34639907 34499877 34189859 33769849 33329856 32959867 32659896 32579955 32549983 32480071 32640096 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more