SPC MD 829

MD 0829 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE Mesoscale Discussion 0829 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Lower Texas Coastline Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222305Z - 230030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated supercell will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has recently developed along a coastal sea breeze to the south of Corpus Christi. Nearby surface observations indicate temperatures are in the mid/upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s F within this maritime air mass, with warmer and marginally drier surface conditions observed inland of the sea breeze. Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by the 18z CRP observed sounding), this is contributing to 3000-4000 (locally up to 4500) J/kg MLCAPE per latest objective analysis. Strong westerly flow aloft associated with the subtropical jet is supporting 40-50 kts of effective shear across South Texas, with relatively straight hodographs favoring supercells capable of large hail (perhaps to 2-3+" in diameter) and damaging/severe wind gusts. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially should this cell interact with the backed, southeasterly surface flow within the moister maritime air mass. It remains uncertain as to how long this cell will persist, but it appears plausible that it could be maintained for at least another hour or two. Bunkers right-motion suggests that a gradual motion to the east-southeast may result in an offshore track; however, there is potential for this cell to instead propagate southward along the sea breeze. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time given the expectation for the severe risk to remain isolated spatially and temporally, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 26929728 26769727 26679727 26599737 26589758 26669779 26849792 27139791 27369779 27409754 27279733 26929728 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more