SPC MD 825

MD 0825 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KY Mesoscale Discussion 0825 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 Areas affected...Parts of northeast MS...central/northern AL...middle/eastern TN and central/eastern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221748Z - 222015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some tornado and localized wind-damage threat will expand northeastward through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Within a broad area of convection covering much of AL, occasional low-level rotation continues to be noted within embedded cells, with an apparent recent tornado southwest of Birmingham. Some strengthening of deep-layer flow has been noted from the KHTX VWP, though deep-layer shear (generally around 30 kt) continues to be rather marginal for organized convection. Modest buoyancy and weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to hamper updraft intensity, but favorable low-level SRH within the very moist environment will continue to support at least a brief-tornado threat across central/northern AL. Farther north, filtered heating is underway across middle TN into southeast KY, though MLCAPE will likely remain modest through the afternoon. As stronger low-level flow/shear spreads northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough, some threat for marginal supercells and brief tornadoes may expand into a larger portion of middle/eastern TN and central/eastern KY. Localized damaging winds will also be possible. The need for watch issuance remains uncertain, due to the potentially limited magnitude and coverage of the threat. Trends will continue to be monitored for a more general uptick in storm intensity and organization through the afternoon. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH... MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32898796 33118836 34538876 35368905 35828875 36428804 36638764 37458619 37648499 37548370 37138376 36468441 35548515 34688565 33308627 32878647 32898796 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more