SPC MD 824

MD 0824 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MS/AL INTO SOUTHERN TN Mesoscale Discussion 0824 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0900 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026 Areas affected...Parts of MS/AL into southern TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221400Z - 221600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in the brief-tornado and localized damaging-wind threat is possible with time into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A midlevel vorticity maximum and attendant weak surface low are moving across eastern AR this morning. An arc of convection associated with this system extends across western TN into northern/eastern MS and western AL. The 12Z JAN/BMX soundings depict rich moisture and poor midlevel lapse rates, with around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear and modestly enlarged low-level hodographs noted on regional VWPs. Filtered heating and modest destabilization in advance of this convective band may allow for some intensification through the morning into the early afternoon, though weak midlevel lapse rates may continue to hamper updraft strength. A belt of moderate low-level flow associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will maintain favorable low-level SRH, and transient supercell structures will continue to be possible through the morning, with a brief-tornado threat. A localized wind-damage threat may also increase with time, especially in areas where stronger heating and steepening of midlevel lapse rates occur. While uncertainty remains regarding coverage and magnitude of the threat, watch issuance is possible given the possibility of some increasing tornado potential with time. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31678926 32648919 33538883 34258918 34628969 34938959 35348926 35628864 35778758 35598669 34658673 33708686 33248690 32478709 30668744 30398904 31158921 31678926 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more