SPC MD 826

MD 0826 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH GA INTO UPSTATE SC Mesoscale Discussion 0826 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 Areas affected...Parts of north GA into Upstate SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221809Z - 222045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for localized damaging wind and a brief tornado may develop later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A nearly stationary baroclinic zone is in place near the NC/SC border early this afternoon. South of the primary thermal gradient, backed surface winds are observed within a broader confluence zone from parts of north GA into Upstate SC. Continued heating/destabilization is expected to result in additional thunderstorm development across this area through the afternoon. This area will be somewhat removed from stronger low/midlevel flow across parts of the TN/OH Valleys, but moderate buoyancy and locally enhanced deep-layer shear within the zone of backed surface winds may support at least transient storm organization, and a marginal supercell or two cannot be ruled out. Weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft intensity and will temper the magnitude of the threat, but localized damaging wind could accompany the strongest storms. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, given the presence of modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH within a very moist environment. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 35008478 35138282 34958212 34928120 34748104 34448115 34328131 34088178 33968220 33998349 34088420 34828471 35008478 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more