SPC MD 814

MD 0814 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC Mesoscale Discussion 0814 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians into parts of southern VA/northern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211952Z - 212145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Localized damaging winds are possible through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon from north GA into southern VA. Convection is generally disorganized within a modestly unstable and weakly sheared environment, though occasionally robust cells have developed in the vicinity of a cold front across southern VA. Relatively strong heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates has occurred from the southern Appalachians to areas of southern VA/northern NC along/south of the cold front, which will result in some potential for localized damaging outflow winds in association with the strongest updrafts/downdrafts. Increasing storm coverage may result in a southward-acceleration of the cold front across southern VA/northern NC through late afternoon, which could result in a broader area of strong but generally subsevere gusts and localized wind-damage potential. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34988161 34108276 34048405 34058444 34088462 34398459 34958292 36728077 37487898 37327730 37177683 36697668 36177767 35797942 35418018 34988161 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more