SPC MD 735

MD 0735 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY Mesoscale Discussion 0735 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Areas affected...Southern portions of Illinois and Indiana...much of central and western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161913Z - 162115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon, with scattered severe storms expected capable of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and possibly a tornado. A watch is possible and convective trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...An MCV was located over southern IL at 19z, and this feature is expected to continue moving east across the discussion area this afternoon. A remnant outflow boundary extended east-west from far southern IL into northern KY and southern IN. Isolated thunderstorm development was noted over far southern IL, and deepening cumulus clouds were noted in the vicinity of the Ohio River as heating/reduction of CINH takes place. Despite areas of cloud cover, filtered heating will contribute to moderate MLCAPE with values of 1500 to locally in excess of 2000 J/kg expected. Slightly stronger mid-level flow east of the MCV will contribute to 30-40 kts of southwesterly deep-layer shear, supportive of organized storms including supercells. Thunderstorms should continue to develop/increase in coverage over the next few hours, with a risk for damaging gusts and large hail. With time, small linear/bowing segments may develop, along with more focused wind damage potential. The potential for a tornado is non zero, and will exist primarily with any more discrete storm in the vicinity of the weakening outflow boundary where low-level SRH will be locally maximized. Convective trends are being monitored, and watch issuance is possible by 20-21z. ..Bunting/Mosier.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38558900 38828811 38778618 38798458 38598378 38088341 37478372 37178468 37128531 37128589 37128630 37098682 37058718 36898761 36938791 37068837 37518919 38078939 38558900 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more