SPC MD 919

MD 0919 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MO...FAR SOUTHERN IL...FAR WESTERN KY...AND FAR NORTHWEST TN Mesoscale Discussion 0919 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Areas affected...Southeast MO...far southern IL...far western KY...and far northwest TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311930Z - 312130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts will be possible with a cluster of thunderstorms tracking southeastward. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms is tracking southeastward across southeastern MO, which has produced a few damaging gusts and small hail. Despite limited deep-layer shear (around 25-kt midlevel flow per regional VWP), warm/moist inflow and steepened lapse rates (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to maintain this activity as it continues southeastward along the CAPE gradient over the next couple hours. Locally damaging gusts will remain possible, but current thinking is that the overall severe risk will remain too limited for a watch. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX... LAT...LON 36959092 37339092 37859020 37858975 37648918 37308875 36858862 36398877 36208901 36088946 36249010 36509059 36959092 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more