First Pitch Outcome Picks: Tuesday, June 30, 2026

June 29 Results: Strike Picks: 1/3 | Ball Picks: 1/3 | In Play Picks: 2/7 (0 fouled)

❌ Matt Vierling - In Play / ✅ Carson Benge - Ball / ❌ George Springer - Strike / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Travis Bazzana - Ball / ❌ Jackson Chourio - In Play / ❌ Trevor Larnach - In Play / ✅ Jose Altuve - In Play / ✅ Jake McCarthy - In Play / ✅ Shohei Ohtani - Strike / ❌ Henry Bolte - Strike / ❌ Zach Neto - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch In Play Picks

TEX @ CLE: Travis Bazzana vs Jacob deGrom — 22.9% (fair odds +337) Jacob deGrom throws the ball in the zone 76.1% of the time, generating swings 47.8% of the time, and allows balls to be put in play 17.4% of the time. Travis Bazzana swings at pitches 25.9% of the time and puts them in play 18.5% of the time.

MIN @ TEX: Jose Altuve vs Joe Ryan - 25.8% (fair odds +228) Joe Ryan throws the ball in the zone 75.0% of the time, generating swings 31.3% of the time, and allows balls to be put in play 16.7% of the time. Jose Altuve swings at pitches 48.3% of the time and puts them in play 24.1% of the time.

LAA @ SEA: Zach Neto vs Bryan Woo - 15.1% (fair odds +561) Bryan Woo throws the ball in the zone 63.8% of the time, generating swings 34.0% of the time, and allows balls to be put in play 14.9% of the time. Zach Neto swings at pitches 53.2% of the time and puts them in play 17.6% of the time.

📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees

• Top 1st Inning : Ryan Weathers vs. Kevin McGonigle
  • Projected Outcome : First Pitch In Play — 17.8% (fair odds +461)
  • Ryan Weathers : 65.2% zone rate, 93.3 mph first pitch fastball
  • Kevin McGonigle : 38.6% swing rate, 17.8% in play rate

Boston Red Sox

• Bottom 1st Inning : Travis Bazzana vs. Jacob deGrom
  • Projected Outcome : In Play — 22.9% (fair odds +337)
  • Jacob deGrom : 76.1% zone rate, 47.8% swing generation
  • Travis Bazzana : 25.9% swing rate, 18.5% in play rate
• Bottom 1st Inning : Trea Turner vs. Bubba Chandler
  • Projected Outcome : Strike — 63.4% (fair odds -173)
  • Bubba Chandler : 73.3% zone rate
  • Trea Turner : 22.2% swing rate, 8.6% in play rate
• Bottom 1st Inning : Paul Goldschmidt vs. Tarik Skubal
  • Projected Outcome : In Play — 13.3% (fair odds +653)
  • Tarik Skubal : 62.2% zone rate
  • Paul Goldschmidt : 35.5% swing rate, 16.1% in play rate

New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays

• Top 1st Inning : Carson Benge vs. Kevin Gausman
  • Projected Outcome : Strike — 62.1% (fair odds -164)
  • Kevin Gausman : 64.8% zone rate
  • Carson Benge : 18.8% swing rate, 2.1% in play rate

St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves

• Top 1st Inning : JJ Wetherholt vs. Martín Pérez
  • Projected Outcome : Ball — 47.8% (fair odds +109)
  • Martín Pérez : 47.8% first pitch ball rate

Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals

• Top 1st Inning : Yandy Díaz vs. Noah Cameron
  • Projected Outcome : Ball — 53.8% (fair odds -117)
  • Noah Cameron : 53.8% first pitch ball rate
• Bottom 1st Inning : Carter Jensen vs. Griffin Jax
  • Projected Outcome : In Play — 13.9% (fair odds +618)
  • Griffin Jax : 63.6% zone rate
  • Carter Jensen : 42.9% swing rate, 14.3% in play rate

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

• Top 1st Inning : Elly De La Cruz vs. Brandon Sproat
  • Projected Outcome : Ball — 52.9% (fair odds -113)
  • Brandon Sproat : 52.9% first pitch ball rate
• Bottom 1st Inning : Christian Yelich vs. Rhett Lowder
  • Projected Outcome : Ball — 58.3% (fair odds -140)
  • Rhett Lowder : 58.3% first pitch ball rate

San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs

• Top 1st Inning : Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. Matthew Boyd
  • Projected Outcome : In Play — 15.1% (fair odds +564)
  • Matthew Boyd : 62.5% zone rate
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. : 37.4% swing rate, 12.8% in play rate

Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros

• Top 1st Inning : Trevor Larnach vs. Mike Burrows
  • Projected Outcome : Ball — 50.0% (fair odds -100)
  • Mike Burrows : 50.0% first pitch ball rate
• Bottom 1st Inning : Jose Altuve vs. Joe Ryan
  • Projected Outcome : In Play — 25.8% (fair odds +288)
  • Joe Ryan : 75.0% zone rate
  • Jose Altuve : 48.3% swing rate, 24.1% in play rate

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins

• Bottom 1st Inning : Jake McCarthy vs. Eury Pérez
  • Projected Outcome : Ball — 54.5% (fair odds -120)
  • Eury Pérez : 54.5% first pitch ball rate

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Oakland Athletics

• Top 1st Inning : Shohei Ohtani vs. Jeffrey Springs
  • Projected Outcome : Ball — 51.1% (fair odds -104)
  • Jeffrey Springs : 51.1% first pitch ball rate
• Bottom 1st Inning : Henry Bolte vs. Justin Wrobleski
  • Projected Outcome : Ball — 46.7% (fair odds +114)
  • Justin Wrobleski : 46.7% first pitch ball rate

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners

• Top 1st Inning : Zach Neto vs. Bryan Woo
  • Projected Outcome : In Play — 15.1% (fair odds +561)
  • Bryan Woo : 63.8% zone rate
  • Zach Neto : 53.2% swing rate, 17.6% in play rate

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.