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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, June 26, 2026 | MLB Edge

edgely.bet June 26, 2026
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First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, June 26, 2026

June 25 Results: Strike Picks: 1/2 | Ball Picks: 2/5 | In Play Picks: 0/6 (2 fouled) ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ✅ Jake Mangum - Ball / ✅ Matt Chapman - Ball / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - Ball / ✅ Trea Turner - Strike / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Carson Benge - Strike / ❌ Paul Goldschmidt - In Play / ❌ Masataka Yoshida - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Ball

See full track record →

Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks

Our highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.

First Pitch In Play Picks

HOU @ DET: Kevin McGonigle vs Spencer Arrighetti — 20.6% (fair odds +385) McGonigle 20.6% in-play projection vs Arrighetti (92.2 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

SEA @ CLE: Randy Arozarena vs Joey Cantillo — 30.5% (fair odds +228) Arozarena 30.5% in-play projection vs Cantillo (90.7 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

COL @ MIN: Trevor Larnach vs Tomoyuki Sugano — 16.7% (fair odds +500) Larnach 16.7% in-play projection vs Sugano (89.8 mph 4-Seam Fastball)

📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.

🎯 New to this market? Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →

Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections

HOU @ DET — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Keider Montero vs Jeremy Peña Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.6% (fair odds +411)

  • Keider Montero: Zone 69.2%, Ball 30.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.8 mph
  • Jeremy Peña: Swing 39.6%, In Play 19.6%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Arrighetti vs Kevin McGonigle Projected: First Pitch In Play — 20.6% (fair odds +385)

  • Spencer Arrighetti: Zone 73.7%, Ball 26.3%
  • Kevin McGonigle: Swing 34.4%, In Play 20.6%

CIN @ PIT — 6:40 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Paul Skenes vs Blake Dunn Projected: First Pitch Strike — 64.6% (fair odds -182)

  • Paul Skenes: Zone 64.6%, Ball 35.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 97.2 mph
  • Blake Dunn: Swing 11.1%, In Play 0.0%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Andrew Abbott vs Konnor Griffin Projected: First Pitch Ball — 52.3% (fair odds -110)

  • Andrew Abbott: Zone 47.7%, Ball 52.3%
  • Konnor Griffin: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%

WSH @ BAL — 7:05 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Trevor Rogers vs James Wood Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.3% (fair odds +515)

  • Trevor Rogers: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.8 mph
  • James Wood: Swing 30.6%, In Play 16.3%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Andrew Alvarez vs Taylor Ward Projected: First Pitch Ball — 55.6% (fair odds -125)

  • Andrew Alvarez: Zone 44.4%, Ball 55.6%
  • Taylor Ward: Swing 41.7%, In Play 5.2%

TEX @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Nathan Eovaldi vs George Springer Projected: First Pitch Strike — 59.5% (fair odds -147)

  • Nathan Eovaldi: Zone 73.0%, Ball 27.0%
  • George Springer: Swing 33.3%, In Play 13.5%

PHI @ NYM — 7:10 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Zack Wheeler vs Carson Benge Projected: First Pitch Strike — 67.0% (fair odds -203)

  • Zack Wheeler: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%
  • Carson Benge: Swing 16.1%, In Play 4.4%

NYY @ BOS — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Payton Tolle vs Paul Goldschmidt Projected: First Pitch In Play — 22.3% (fair odds +348)

  • Payton Tolle: Zone 69.2%, Ball 30.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.8 mph
  • Paul Goldschmidt: Swing 33.3%, In Play 22.3%

SEA @ CLE — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Joey Cantillo vs Randy Arozarena Projected: First Pitch In Play — 30.5% (fair odds +228)

  • Joey Cantillo: Zone 69.0%, Ball 31.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph
  • Randy Arozarena: Swing 42.1%, In Play 30.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Luis Castillo vs Travis Bazzana Projected: First Pitch In Play — 19.1% (fair odds +423)

  • Luis Castillo: Zone 60.9%, Ball 39.1%
  • Travis Bazzana: Swing 35.3%, In Play 19.1%

ARI @ TB — 7:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Nick Martinez vs Ketel Marte Projected: First Pitch In Play — 24.4% (fair odds +309)

  • Nick Martinez: Zone 73.2%, Ball 26.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.2 mph
  • Ketel Marte: Swing 32.4%, In Play 24.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Zac Gallen vs Yandy Díaz Projected: First Pitch Ball — 46.9% (fair odds +113)

  • Zac Gallen: Zone 53.1%, Ball 46.9%
  • Yandy Díaz: Swing 33.9%, In Play 12.1%

CHC @ MIL — 7:45 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Jacob Misiorowski vs Pete Crow-Armstrong Projected: First Pitch Ball — 58.6% (fair odds -142)

  • Jacob Misiorowski: Zone 41.4%, Ball 58.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 100.8 mph
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 30.0%, In Play 4.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Colin Rea vs Christian Yelich Projected: First Pitch Strike — 69.2% (fair odds -225)

  • Colin Rea: Zone 69.2%, Ball 30.8%
  • Christian Yelich: Swing 8.3%, In Play 0.0%

COL @ MIN — 8:10 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Taj Bradley vs Jake McCarthy Projected: First Pitch Ball — 53.7% (fair odds -116)

  • Taj Bradley: Zone 46.3%, Ball 53.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.6 mph
  • Jake McCarthy: Swing 43.5%, In Play 4.4%

B1 (Bottom 1st): Tomoyuki Sugano vs Trevor Larnach Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.7% (fair odds +500)

  • Tomoyuki Sugano: Zone 57.8%, Ball 42.2%
  • Trevor Larnach: Swing 46.4%, In Play 16.7%

MIA @ STL — 8:15 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Michael McGreevy vs Xavier Edwards Projected: First Pitch In Play — 16.3% (fair odds +513)

  • Michael McGreevy: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.1 mph
  • Xavier Edwards: Swing 27.9%, In Play 16.3%

OAK @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET

T1 (Top 1st): Walbert Ureña vs Henry Bolte Projected: First Pitch Ball — 58.3% (fair odds -140)

  • Walbert Ureña: Zone 41.7%, Ball 58.3%, 1st pitch Sinker 96.9 mph
  • Henry Bolte: Swing 66.7%, In Play 5.5%

B1 (Bottom 1st): J.T. Ginn vs Nolan Schanuel Projected: First Pitch Strike — 62.6% (fair odds -167)

  • J.T. Ginn: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%
  • Nolan Schanuel: Swing 42.9%, In Play 4.1%

LAD @ SD — 9:45 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Roki Sasaki vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Projected: First Pitch Ball — 47.6% (fair odds +110)

  • Roki Sasaki: Zone 52.4%, Ball 47.6%
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.9%, In Play 16.0%

ATL @ SF — 10:15 PM ET

B1 (Bottom 1st): Reynaldo López vs Luis Arraez Projected: First Pitch Strike — 62.4% (fair odds -166)

  • Reynaldo López: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%
  • Luis Arraez: Swing 6.2%, In Play 4.3%

Live First Inning Data

For real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:

→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)

edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly.

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