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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for June 26, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-june-26-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-06-26T21:06:52.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, June 26, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **June 25 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 1/2 | Ball Picks: 2/5 | In Play Picks: 0/6 (2 fouled)\n> ❌ Yandy Díaz - In Play / ❌ J.P. Crawford - In Play / ✅ Jake Mangum - Ball / ✅ Matt Chapman - Ball / ❌ Jeremy Peña - In Play / ❌ Kevin McGonigle - Ball / ✅ Trea Turner - Strike / ❌ James Wood - In Play / ❌ Carson Benge - Strike / ❌ Paul Goldschmidt - In Play / ❌ Masataka Yoshida - Ball / ❌ Ketel Marte - In Play / ❌ JJ Wetherholt - Ball\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **HOU @ DET: Kevin McGonigle vs Spencer Arrighetti — 20.6% (fair odds +385)**\n>  McGonigle 20.6% in-play projection vs Arrighetti (92.2 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n> **SEA @ CLE: Randy Arozarena vs Joey Cantillo — 30.5% (fair odds +228)**\n>  Arozarena 30.5% in-play projection vs Cantillo (90.7 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n> **COL @ MIN: Trevor Larnach vs Tomoyuki Sugano — 16.7% (fair odds +500)**\n>  Larnach 16.7% in-play projection vs Sugano (89.8 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups are not all confirmed before publishing. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### HOU @ DET — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Keider Montero vs Jeremy Peña**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 19.6%** (fair odds +411)\n\n  * Keider Montero: Zone 69.2%, Ball 30.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.8 mph\n  * Jeremy Peña: Swing 39.6%, In Play 19.6%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Spencer Arrighetti vs Kevin McGonigle**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 20.6%** (fair odds +385)\n\n  * Spencer Arrighetti: Zone 73.7%, Ball 26.3%\n  * Kevin McGonigle: Swing 34.4%, In Play 20.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CIN @ PIT — 6:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Paul Skenes vs Blake Dunn**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 64.6%** (fair odds -182)\n\n  * Paul Skenes: Zone 64.6%, Ball 35.4%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 97.2 mph\n  * Blake Dunn: Swing 11.1%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Andrew Abbott vs Konnor Griffin**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 52.3%** (fair odds -110)\n\n  * Andrew Abbott: Zone 47.7%, Ball 52.3%\n  * Konnor Griffin: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### WSH @ BAL — 7:05 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Trevor Rogers vs James Wood**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 16.3%** (fair odds +515)\n\n  * Trevor Rogers: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.8 mph\n  * James Wood: Swing 30.6%, In Play 16.3%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Andrew Alvarez vs Taylor Ward**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 55.6%** (fair odds -125)\n\n  * Andrew Alvarez: Zone 44.4%, Ball 55.6%\n  * Taylor Ward: Swing 41.7%, In Play 5.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TEX @ TOR — 7:07 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Nathan Eovaldi vs George Springer**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 59.5%** (fair odds -147)\n\n  * Nathan Eovaldi: Zone 73.0%, Ball 27.0%\n  * George Springer: Swing 33.3%, In Play 13.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### PHI @ NYM — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Zack Wheeler vs Carson Benge**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 67.0%** (fair odds -203)\n\n  * Zack Wheeler: Zone 71.4%, Ball 28.6%\n  * Carson Benge: Swing 16.1%, In Play 4.4%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYY @ BOS — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Payton Tolle vs Paul Goldschmidt**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 22.3%** (fair odds +348)\n\n  * Payton Tolle: Zone 69.2%, Ball 30.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.8 mph\n  * Paul Goldschmidt: Swing 33.3%, In Play 22.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SEA @ CLE — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Joey Cantillo vs Randy Arozarena**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 30.5%** (fair odds +228)\n\n  * Joey Cantillo: Zone 69.0%, Ball 31.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.7 mph\n  * Randy Arozarena: Swing 42.1%, In Play 30.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Luis Castillo vs Travis Bazzana**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 19.1%** (fair odds +423)\n\n  * Luis Castillo: Zone 60.9%, Ball 39.1%\n  * Travis Bazzana: Swing 35.3%, In Play 19.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ARI @ TB — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Nick Martinez vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 24.4%** (fair odds +309)\n\n  * Nick Martinez: Zone 73.2%, Ball 26.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.2 mph\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 32.4%, In Play 24.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Zac Gallen vs Yandy Díaz**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 46.9%** (fair odds +113)\n\n  * Zac Gallen: Zone 53.1%, Ball 46.9%\n  * Yandy Díaz: Swing 33.9%, In Play 12.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CHC @ MIL — 7:45 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jacob Misiorowski vs Pete Crow-Armstrong**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 58.6%** (fair odds -142)\n\n  * Jacob Misiorowski: Zone 41.4%, Ball 58.6%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 100.8 mph\n  * Pete Crow-Armstrong: Swing 30.0%, In Play 4.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Colin Rea vs Christian Yelich**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 69.2%** (fair odds -225)\n\n  * Colin Rea: Zone 69.2%, Ball 30.8%\n  * Christian Yelich: Swing 8.3%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### COL @ MIN — 8:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Taj Bradley vs Jake McCarthy**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 53.7%** (fair odds -116)\n\n  * Taj Bradley: Zone 46.3%, Ball 53.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 95.6 mph\n  * Jake McCarthy: Swing 43.5%, In Play 4.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Tomoyuki Sugano vs Trevor Larnach**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 16.7%** (fair odds +500)\n\n  * Tomoyuki Sugano: Zone 57.8%, Ball 42.2%\n  * Trevor Larnach: Swing 46.4%, In Play 16.7%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIA @ STL — 8:15 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Michael McGreevy vs Xavier Edwards**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 16.3%** (fair odds +513)\n\n  * Michael McGreevy: Zone 70.0%, Ball 30.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.1 mph\n  * Xavier Edwards: Swing 27.9%, In Play 16.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### OAK @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Walbert Ureña vs Henry Bolte**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 58.3%** (fair odds -140)\n\n  * Walbert Ureña: Zone 41.7%, Ball 58.3%, 1st pitch Sinker 96.9 mph\n  * Henry Bolte: Swing 66.7%, In Play 5.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): J.T. Ginn vs Nolan Schanuel**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 62.6%** (fair odds -167)\n\n  * J.T. Ginn: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%\n  * Nolan Schanuel: Swing 42.9%, In Play 4.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### LAD @ SD — 9:45 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Roki Sasaki vs Fernando Tatis Jr.**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 47.6%** (fair odds +110)\n\n  * Roki Sasaki: Zone 52.4%, Ball 47.6%\n  * Fernando Tatis Jr.: Swing 37.9%, In Play 16.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ATL @ SF — 10:15 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Reynaldo López vs Luis Arraez**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 62.4%** (fair odds -166)\n\n  * Reynaldo López: Zone 66.7%, Ball 33.3%\n  * Luis Arraez: Swing 6.2%, In Play 4.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, June 26, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-06-26T21:06:53.178Z"
}