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  "description": "Today's first pitch outcome picks for May 15, 2026 — top picks, full slate projections, and pitcher tendency data for every game.",
  "path": "/mlb/mlb-first-pitch-may-15-2026/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-15T21:40:34.000Z",
  "site": "https://edgely.bet",
  "tags": [
    "See full track record →",
    "Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →",
    "→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)"
  ],
  "textContent": "# First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, May 15, 2026\n\n* * *\n\n> **May 14 Results:**\n>  Strike Picks: 2/3 | Ball Picks: 3/7 | In Play Picks: 0/1\n>\n> ❌ Oneil Cruz - Strike / ❌ James Wood - Ball / ✅ Xavier Edwards - Strike / ✅ Jackson Chourio - Ball / ✅ Brendan Donovan - Ball / ✅ JJ Wetherholt - Ball / ❌ Nick Kurtz - In Play / ✅ Nico Hoerner - Strike / ❌ Drake Baldwin - Ball / ❌ Maikel Garcia - Ball / ❌ Jung Hoo Lee - Ball\n>\n> See full track record →\n\n* * *\n\n## Today's Top First Pitch Outcome Picks\n\nOur highest-conviction plays from today's 15-game slate. Best bets based on pitcher tendency, batter swing profile, and model projection.\n\n### First Pitch In Play Picks\n\n> **ARI @ COL: Ketel Marte vs Kyle Freeland — 23.3% (fair odds +329)**\n>  Marte 23.3% in-play projection vs Freeland (90.1 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n> **KC @ STL: JJ Wetherholt vs Michael Wacha — 19.0% (fair odds +427)**\n>  Wetherholt 19.0% in-play projection vs Wacha (91.6 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n> **MIL @ MIN: Jackson Chourio vs Joe Ryan — 16.1% (fair odds +519)**\n>  Chourio 16.1% in-play projection vs Ryan (93.1 mph 4-Seam Fastball)\n\n* * *\n\n> 📍 Lineups confirmed before publish. Always verify no late scratches before locking bets.\n\n> 🎯 **New to this market?** Read the First Pitch Outcome Betting Guide →\n\n* * *\n\n## Full Slate — First Pitch Outcome Projections\n\n### BAL @ WSH — 6:45 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Shane Baz vs James Wood**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 14.5%** (fair odds +589)\n\n  * Shane Baz: Zone 56.4%, Ball 43.6%\n  * James Wood: Swing 35.1%, In Play 14.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TOR @ DET — 6:45 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Trey Yesavage vs Kevin McGonigle**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.3%** (fair odds +445)\n\n  * Trey Yesavage: Zone 63.6%, Ball 36.4%\n  * Kevin McGonigle: Swing 30.0%, In Play 18.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CIN @ CLE — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Andrew Abbott vs Steven Kwan**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 55.3%** (fair odds -124)\n\n  * Andrew Abbott: Zone 44.7%, Ball 55.3%\n  * Steven Kwan: Swing 3.8%, In Play 1.6%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### MIL @ MIN — 7:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Joe Ryan vs Jackson Chourio**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 16.1%** (fair odds +519)\n\n  * Joe Ryan: Zone 69.2%, Ball 30.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.1 mph\n  * Jackson Chourio: Swing 43.2%, In Play 16.1%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### NYY @ NYM — 7:15 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Cam Schlittler vs Carson Benge**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 48.0%** (fair odds +108)\n\n  * Cam Schlittler: Zone 52.0%, Ball 48.0%\n  * Carson Benge: Swing 0.0%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### CHC @ CWS — 7:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Sean Burke vs Nico Hoerner**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 58.0%** (fair odds -138)\n\n  * Sean Burke: Zone 63.5%, Ball 36.5%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 92.8 mph\n  * Nico Hoerner: Swing 3.8%, In Play 5.5%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Edward Cabrera vs Sam Antonacci**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 61.3%** (fair odds -158)\n\n  * Edward Cabrera: Zone 73.5%, Ball 26.5%\n  * Sam Antonacci: Swing 12.5%, In Play 12.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### TEX @ HOU — 8:10 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Spencer Arrighetti vs Joc Pederson**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 75.0%** (fair odds -300)\n\n  * Spencer Arrighetti: Zone 75.0%, Ball 25.0%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 93.3 mph\n  * Joc Pederson: Swing 22.2%, In Play 0.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### KC @ STL — 8:15 PM ET\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Michael Wacha vs JJ Wetherholt**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 19.0%** (fair odds +427)\n\n  * Michael Wacha: Zone 74.4%, Ball 25.6%\n  * JJ Wetherholt: Swing 35.3%, In Play 19.0%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### ARI @ COL — 8:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Kyle Freeland vs Ketel Marte**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 23.3%** (fair odds +329)\n\n  * Kyle Freeland: Zone 70.3%, Ball 29.7%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.1 mph\n  * Ketel Marte: Swing 35.3%, In Play 23.3%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### LAD @ LAA — 9:38 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Jack Kochanowicz vs Shohei Ohtani**\nProjected: **First Pitch Strike — 67.5%** (fair odds -208)\n\n  * Jack Kochanowicz: Zone 77.4%, Ball 22.6%, 1st pitch Sinker 95.9 mph\n  * Shohei Ohtani: Swing 22.2%, In Play 9.9%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SD @ SEA — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Emerson Hancock vs Jackson Merrill**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 19.3%** (fair odds +418)\n\n  * Emerson Hancock: Zone 70.8%, Ball 29.2%, 1st pitch Sinker 94.5 mph\n  * Jackson Merrill: Swing 77.8%, In Play 19.3%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Randy Vásquez vs Brendan Donovan**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 15.2%** (fair odds +557)\n\n  * Randy Vásquez: Zone 67.6%, Ball 32.4%\n  * Brendan Donovan: Swing 34.5%, In Play 15.2%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n### SF @ OAK — 9:40 PM ET\n\n**T1 (Top 1st): Aaron Civale vs Jung Hoo Lee**\nProjected: **First Pitch Ball — 53.8%** (fair odds -116)\n\n  * Aaron Civale: Zone 46.2%, Ball 53.8%, 1st pitch 4-Seam Fastball 90.4 mph\n  * Jung Hoo Lee: Swing 17.9%, In Play 5.4%\n\n\n\n**B1 (Bottom 1st): Tyler Mahle vs Nick Kurtz**\nProjected: **First Pitch In Play — 18.5%** (fair odds +440)\n\n  * Tyler Mahle: Zone 62.5%, Ball 37.5%\n  * Nick Kurtz: Swing 41.0%, In Play 18.5%\n\n\n\n* * *\n\n## Live First Inning Data\n\nFor real-time projections, community picks, NRFI/YRFI lines, and full pitch count breakdowns for every game today:\n\n→ edgely First Inning Hub (live, updates with lineups)\n\n* * *\n\n_edgely model. First pitch tendency data sourced from current-season pitch logs. Always gamble responsibly._",
  "title": "First Pitch Outcome Picks: Friday, May 15, 2026 | MLB Edge",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-15T21:40:34.686Z"
}