xPected Edge #5: SHOW ME THE MUNE

Welcome to the fifth edition of xPected Edge!

For those new to the program, the goal of this series is to isolate and examine the data points behind the slash line and the box score. All season long, I'll be looking into the Data Darlings and Disasters to help expose edges for dynasty league players to either buy low on guys due for better days or sell high on players who have been performing way above their true talent.

xPected Edge - Prospects LiveProspects LivePJ Benasillo

Spencer Torkelson, DET, 1B

Photo Credit: Fox SportsSpencer Torkelson Savant as of 4/28/26

Spencer Torkelson has been one of the more fascinating players in the league when you consider his college performance and draft pedigree. In college, Torkelson was an undeniable force. As a freshman, he set an ASU record with 25 HR, absolutely shattering Barry Bonds' 11-homer mark. He proceeded to hit 54 home runs in his three-year career at Arizona State University and finished second in school history behind Bob Horner, but his final season before being drafted was shortened by COVID. Following his elite college career, Torkelson was a near-consensus first overall pick in 2020 and was viewed as among the safest picks in the draft.

That perception hasn't quite been the reality for most of Torkelson's career. To date, Torkelson has two seasons with an OPS above .750 and two seasons with an OPS below .670. Ultimately, if Torkelson isn't hitting homers, his value is fairly limited as he doesn't swipe bags and isn't a particularly explosive athlete. He also hasn't demonstrated the high-end bat-to-ball that he showed in college at the major league level. His highest batting average in the majors has been .240, set last year.

It looked as though Torkelson was on pace to continue his alternating performance track record through the early parts of the season. If you look at the image below, you'll see what Torkelson's savant page looked like through April 6th:

Torkelson's Savant Page through April 6th.

I actually drafted Torkelson in the 7th round of the PLive Staff League, and spent most of April trying to sell him. I was ultimately unable to find a buyer at a price that I liked, and shortly thereafter, Torkelson went nuclear, as you can see below:

Torkelson's Rolling xwOBA as of 4/28

It's easy to see exactly when Torkelson hit homers in five consecutive games to rapidly transform his season slash line. He went from a .553 OPS on April 22nd to a .836 OPS at the time of publication. Torkelson's 2026 so far is a reminder to the general public that the calendar hasn't even reached May and that seasons can change radically in a single week.

Ultimately, I think Torkelson has stabilized out of the "every other year" malaise he demonstrated at the beginning of his career. I think that Torkelson could yet again provide a 30+ HR season. The hard-hit rate and exit velocity data in 2026 indicate that power is still abundant. I don't think I'd consider Torkelson a T100 dynasty asset; however, his power keeps him viable as a source of intrigue. The power will be significant, as the number of 30-40 HR bats around the league is limited. Aspirationally, one can hope that over time, Torkelson can develop into a Brent Rooker-type bat. He's not there yet, but that sort of ceiling is possible.

Munetaka Murakami, CWS, 1B

Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski

Sign up for Prospects Live

Your one stop shop for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball, MLB Draft, Baseball Card & MiLB Baseball content. Blending Data & Scouting into our Player Evaluation

Subscribe

Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

This post is for subscribers only

Become a member to get access to all content

Subscribe now