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xPected Edge #1

Prospects Live April 1, 2026

Welcome to xPected Edge! This is the maiden voyage of this series, and I, PJ Benasillo, will be your captain, so sit back, relax, and enjoy the flight--complimentary peanuts and pretzels will be distributed soon.

In all seriousness, the goal of this series is to isolate and examine the data points behind the slash line and the box score. All season long, I'll be looking into the Data Darlings and Disasters to help expose edges for dynasty league players to either buy low on guys due for better days or sell high on players who have been performing way above their true talent.

This early in the season, it's relatively difficult to determine which performance is a hot week and which is sustainable. Sorting through that noise is what I am here for. The amazing Joshua Rodriguez conducted an analysis last year, finding that after five to six swings at the MLB level, we can get a fairly good sense of how fast a player will be swinging the bat for the upcoming season. By the time that a player has taken swings, we get a really strong sense of what their general ballpark will be for the remainder of the season.

Now, why does bat speed matter? Well, there is a really strong correlation where swinging the bat faster leads to higher exit velocities, which ultimately lead to better performance outcomes. Here are the average outcomes from a couple of bands of swing speeds from an article published by MLB:

80+ mph bat speed

.321 BA / .665 SLG / .419 wOBA 52% hard-hit rate / +2 run value per 100

70-79 mph bat speed

.274 BA / .477 SLG / .322 wOBA 46% hard-hit rate / -1.5 run value per 100

0-69 mph bat speed

.202 BA / .254 SLG / .205 wOBA 29% hard-hit rate / -4 run value per 100

So, put succinctly: swing the bat hard = hit the ball hard.

For context, the average bat speed across MLB is 71.9 MPH. So that line of demarcation will serve as a guide for analyzing some of the names to watch early this year to see if increased bat speed leads to greater success at the plate. At least early on, some of the biggest bat speed gainers have been among the most impressive early-season results.

Also, including this caveat: we're dealing with supremely small sample sizes of actual batted-ball outputs, but using the previously described lens is my best attempt to mitigate some of the noise. Do NOT make insanely rash moves based on this data.

Disclaimer over, let's dive in.

Colt Keith, IF Detroit Tigers

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