xPected Edge #3

Welcome to the third edition of xPected Edge!

For those new to the program, the goal of this series is to isolate and examine the data points behind the slash line and the box score. All season long, I'll be looking into the Data Darlings and Disasters to help expose edges for dynasty league players to either buy low on guys due for better days or sell high on players who have been performing way above their true talent.

xPected Edge - Prospects LiveProspects LivePJ Benasillo

The trend for today's xPected Edge is a look into the broader mechanics and analysis of xwOBA. The collection of players I am breaking down this week has varied profiles that also necessitate a nuanced analysis of each player's season-long dynasty outlook.

Andy Pages, LAD OF

Photo Credit: World Baseball Network

Andy Pages has been one of the biggest standouts in the early goings of the 2026 season. The 25-year-old Dodgers CF has 5 HR and 2 SB with a .417/.453/.733 slash line. Aside from ushering in complaints from the masses about how "the Dodgers are unfair" and "how come their #7 hitter has a higher OPS than my team's best hitter?" After putting together a 4.1 fWAR season in 2025, Pages has already accumulated 1.3 fWAR in just 16 games so far. He's been an integral part of the Dodgers' MLB-best record.

The back of a baseball card: numbers for Pages so far have been unassailable; however, both common sense and under-the-hood data indicate that there is some regression coming as the season advances. Obviously, he's not going to hit .417 for the rest of the season; no one believes that he's going to maintain a batting average higher than Ted Williams's best season. That doesn't require any degree of insight or analysis, but determining exactly how big the drop-off will be and whether the regression will gently drop the stat line over time, or if there's a cliff coming for Pages, does.

At present, Pages leads the majors with a wOBA of .520. The expected stats believe that Pages should have a .366 wOBA based on his current metrics. The difference between those numbers is the single largest gap between present and expected performance among any qualified hitter. So, it's clear that regression is due. But is a .366 xwOBA bad? No, not at all. It actually places Pages in the 75th percentile across the league. So why do the expected stats suggest there's going to be such a significant drop-off? It's because they include strikeouts in their analysis. For those who don't know, the "x" stats are inclusive, not just of the quality of contact a player makes or the locations of their batted balls, but also of their strikeout rates.

In the eyes of MLB Savant, a strikeout is the single worst thing a batter can do, and will add .000 value in the total calculus of the metrics. Despite his current hot streak, Pages is striking out 25% of the time right now, which is elevated but not terrible, especially for a batter with Pages's power capability. If Pages dropped his K-rate, it could substantially eat into the projected regression and set him up for a very enticing season. Ultimately, what is Pages's 2026 going to look like? Well, the power and speed are going to stay. His bat speed has upticked, he's been barreling the ball more, and average exit velocity has subsequently improved. Plate discipline is going to be Pages's limiting factor in 2026. If he makes substantial strides in that department, he could jump into the elite tier. I think Pages will eclipse both his 27 HR and 12 SB counts from 2025. So, with that in mind, if your league mates are fading Pages on the back of the expected stats and accusing him of being a mirage, there is a viable buying window. There is a reasonable window in which one can buy at an "elevated" price and still profit, with a possible 35 HR, 20 SBB campaign being an attainable season stat line.

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