xPected Edge #4: Taylor's ERAs Tour

Welcome to the fourth edition of xPected Edge!

For those new to the program, the goal of this series is to isolate and examine the data points behind the slash line and the box score. All season long, I'll be looking into the Data Darlings and Disasters to help expose edges for dynasty league players to either buy low on guys due for better days or sell high on players who have been performing way above their true talent.

After spending the first three editions breaking down the hitters to watch, we are finally pivoting to covering the pitchers. This trio of pitchers is all currently getting unlucky according to xERA. We'll be breaking down whether the xERA is legitimate and whether their current ERAs are in line with their actual performance.

xPected Edge - Prospects LiveProspects LivePJ Benasillo

Jesus Luzardo, PHI LHP (SP)

Photo Credit: Bill StreicherJesus Luzardo Savant Sliders

The recently extended Phillies SP has had a start in 2026 he'd love to forget. In his four starts so far, the 2016 third-rounder has compiled a ghastly 7.94 ERA. Across the four starts, he's allowed: 6 runs, 1 run, 5 runs, and 8 runs. The good news is that the strikeouts have been there so far, with Luzardo recording 7 strikeouts, 11 strikeouts, 8 strikeouts, and 4 strikeouts. He's also allowed only 4 walks compared to his 23 strikeouts on the year, so that's fairly positive.

Well, the Ks and BBs are solid. So, the next on the checklist for pitcher assessment: has he had any issues with the long ball? Kind of? He's allowed three homers so far, which isn't outstanding, but could also be worse. In terms of the three true outcomes, Luzardo's been pretty great, which is why his SIERA (2.45), FIP (2.87), and xFIP (1.93) are all in really solid shape. So all of this would indicate that better times are ahead for Luzardo, right? Yeah, I would say that's fair. He's far too talented to maintain a 7.94 ERA for a whole season, and I don't think that's a particularly hot take. The xERA is 3.59; every ERA estimator thinks that there are better days ahead for Luzardo.

However, I do think there's a soft factor that isn't reflected in these statistics, and I believe it's notable for dynasty owners. When it falls apart for Luzardo, it REALLY falls apart. Year over year, Luzardo has a gnarly propensity to get shelled. He will have elite starts and stretches that keep the overall ERA numbers looking great, but his blow-ups are the reason why he seems to be unable to get his ERA in line with his ERA estimators for much of the last three years.

To elaborate a little more clearly, I compared Luzardo to his peers in this year's NFBC pool. Luzardo (28 y/o) was the 26th-ranked pitcher by ADP; he sat right behind Joe Ryan (30 y/o) at 25th, and George Kirby (28 y/o) at 23rd. I wanted to get a sense of exactly how frequently Luzardo implodes compared to his contemporaries. For the sake of this exercise, I defined a blow-up start as an outing in which the starting pitcher gave up 6 or more earned runs, and compared it year by year.

As you can see, Luzardo has a slightly higher propensity to blow up compared to his fellow pitchers. He has fewer starts than Kirby or Ryan, mostly due to his injuries sustained over the course of his 2024 season, but the fact that other pitchers are able to avoid these sorts of ratio tanking starts over larger sample sizes is notable.

I will admit this analysis is very crude, but there is something about Luzardo's game that makes him more prone to blow-up starts than his peers. It could be that he allows those runs earlier in the game, leaving management with no choice but to let him wear it in an attempt to preserve the bullpen. It could be that he has particularly poor luck with relief pitchers, allowing runners he left on base to score. I will probably follow up on this with further analysis on Twitter eventually, but I wanted to note for the audience that there's something that has bit Luzardo for most of the last three-plus years, precluding him from hitting the ceiling his talent would indicate.

I don't doubt Luzardo's talent; in fact, all the ERA estimators believe he's not only due for positive regression, but also due to go on a TEAR to drag his ERA in line. He just has a certain "Je ne sais quoi" that I believe will preclude him from hitting his ceiling. It may be difficult to sell at the moment, but I would be looking to flip him once his ERA smoothens out for a comparable pitcher if I could. Alternatively, if you're okay with the possibility that Luzardo could spontaneously tank your ratios in a H2H league, for example, it may be worth trying to buy while his owner might be frustrated with his current performance. Luzardo may just ultimately be a frustrating player to own, the type of player who constantly hints at Cy Young Award-caliber brilliance, that will ultimately lie just out of reach. Ultimately, that sort of player has value, but the total benefit depends on an owner's risk tolerance and scoring settings.

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