SPC MD 1125

MD 1125 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI Mesoscale Discussion 1125 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska...southwestern Iowa...northern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 132017Z - 132215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase along the southward moving cold front. Initial supercells will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity will increase along the cold front this afternoon/evening spreading eastward through time. Surface objective analysis is likely underestimating the progression northward of better instability in the wake of the morning convection. 18z soundings from TOP and DVN suggest MLCAPE is spreading northward faster than advertised. Cumulus development is increasing near the intersection of a diffuse remnant outflow boundary to the south with the cold front further north. Development of storms is likely in this region and along the front through the evening. Given strong deep layer shear profiles (around 40-50 kts), initial development will likely be supercellular posing a risk for large hail and damaging wind. Through time as the front shifts south and east, tendency will be for upscale growth and a shift to more of a damaging wind threat. A watch will likely be needed to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39969768 39689829 39679851 39729881 39859882 40619831 41169688 41549569 41709491 41409489 40489505 40059620 39969768 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more