SPC MD 1122

MD 1122 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI Mesoscale Discussion 1122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Areas affected...far southeastern Nebraska...northeastern Kansas...northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 131849Z - 132045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercell potential to increase through the afternoon. Large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...Cumulus is deepening along a residual outflow boundary extending southwest to northeast across northeastern Kansas. The 18z RAOB from TOP (Topeka, KS) indicates inhibition has eroded. SPC mesoanalysis data has indicated that instability is nudging northward into eastern Kansas. This is confirmed in the 18z sounding, with MLCAPE sampled around 2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is around 40-50 kts. Though deep layer shear is fairly weak, presence of the outflow boundary may locally enhance surface vorticity in the short term. Initial mode will likely be supercelluar, with potential for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado where mesoscale features align. Additional development is expected to the west along the cold front this afternoon. Development along the front will likely be suprecellular initially, posing a threat for large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale with a damaging wind threat spreading eastward through the evening. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38919763 39389775 39819754 40319702 40369623 40189526 39609360 39039350 38139415 38179568 38639717 38919763 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more