SPC MD 1126

MD 1126 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 1126 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern/western Kansas into portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 132041Z - 132245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along the front and spread eastward with time through the evening. Threats will include damaging wind and large hail. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along a southward moving cold front this afternoon/evening across portions of western Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Initial activity has begun to develop across the far western Panhandles where profiles are deeply mixed. As a result initial activity has struggled to establish but lightning has developed over the last 30-45 minutes. Ahead of the front, steep low to mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) are spreading eastward with temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s. Warming temperatures and dew points in the mid 60s to 70s have yielded MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg. Initial activity will likely be supercellular with potential for large hail and damaging wind before tendency to quickly grow upscale with the southward moving front. This will likely shift the main threat to become damaging wind. A watch will likely be needed to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37020141 37640092 38559966 38989894 38919853 37729833 37149879 36729950 36260007 35800083 35860137 36180178 37020141 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more