SPC MD 1047

MD 1047 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 1047 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026 Areas affected...portions of extreme northeastern New Mexico...far southeastern Colorado...northern Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma Panhandle...southwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 091846Z - 092115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The potential for severe gusts is increasing as high-based storms develop through the afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed to address the impending threat. DISCUSSION...The boundary layer continues to mix and deepen over the southern High Plains, as surface temperatures approach 100 F, with 50 T/Td spreads supporting 9+ C/km low-level lapse rates and over 1500 J/kg DCAPE. Very strong evaporative cooling potential exists ahead of an approaching 500 mb longwave trough, which is poised to glance the region to the north. As such, scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of the southern High Plains over the next few hours, and will become capable of producing severe (58+ mph) gusts, a few of which may exceed 75 mph. If convective cells can become deep enough, a few instances of hail may also occur. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34940399 35620427 36650414 37740385 38280342 38970134 38900069 38570019 38039998 37399992 36610023 35860069 35290134 34870201 34690255 34650307 34700350 34940399 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more