SPC MD 1127

MD 1127 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND THE MID-SOUTH Mesoscale Discussion 1127 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Arkansas and the Mid-South Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132055Z - 132230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a brief tornado continues across portions of northern/eastern Arkansas and will soon spread into western Tennessee and perhaps northern Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has increased over the past 1-2 hours along a remnant outflow boundary extending from far southwestern Missouri into northern Arkansas and toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. The predominant storm mode consists of a mix of multicell clusters and occasional supercell structures. MRMS MESH estimates have ranged up to 1.5" with some storms, with 1" hail previously reported in northern Arkansas. Latest objective analysis indicate this activity is approaching a relative maximum in available buoyancy along the Mississippi River which could result in some increase in the severe potential over the next 1-2 hours, with the main risks being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Some cells have also exhibited transient periods of enhanced low-level rotation. Low-level shear remains weak ahead of the remnant outflow boundary, with less than 50 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled by the NQA VAD. Thus, any potential for a brief tornado is likely to be tied to any cell that can favorably interact with the outflow boundary. With greater effective shear remaining displaced to the north of the outflow boundary, uncertainty remains regarding storm longevity and the magnitude of the severe threat. Trends will continue to be monitored for potential watch issuance. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35239268 35769327 36099341 36369343 36519340 36599329 36569310 36329243 36209195 36129138 36089101 36159056 36269024 36538974 36728940 36918917 36988903 37008887 36968865 36878841 36698821 36528814 36148803 35668807 35288827 34948859 34688914 34548961 34539028 34659133 34799185 35189260 35239268 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more