SPC MD 1123

MD 1123 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 1123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern/central Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131850Z - 132015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas along a remnant outflow boundary, with a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis and visible satellite data depicts a remnant outflow boundary that has recently stalled across far southwest Missouri and northern Arkansas. Ahead/south of the outflow boundary, rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid-70s F) is contributing to the development of strong buoyancy (around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE). As continued insolation continues to erode remaining inhibition, convergence along the outflow boundary is likely to support additional strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. A zone of modestly enhanced mid-level flow (sampled by the SGF VWP) downstream of an MCV analyzed over southeast Kansas and modest effective shear of 25-35 kts is likely to support some updraft organization, with initially discrete cells bringing an isolated threat for large hail before a quick transition to a multicell storm mode yields a greater threat for damaging winds. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out with any cell that can favorably interact with the remnant outflow boundary. The displacement of greater effective shear to the north of the outflow boundary is largely expected to preclude greater storm organization. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch could be needed should a corridor of greater severe potential become evident, however. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 36409414 36529394 36649374 36669337 36629196 36569108 36489069 36319043 36149019 35749007 35339016 35159036 35089075 35079118 35109186 35129295 35159375 35239427 35359443 35559450 35749451 35999437 36409414 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more