SPC MD 1124

MD 1124 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST Mesoscale Discussion 1124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Southeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131907Z - 132130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a localized risk for damaging downburst winds. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a hot, humid air mass in place across the southeastern U.S., with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s noted along the Atlantic Coast. Surface convergence along the sea breeze and a of a roughly west-east oriented stationary boundary is supporting isolated thunderstorm development as of 19 UTC, with additional agitated cumulus noted on visible satellite imagery. As thunderstorm coverage expands through the afternoon (particularly where low-level convergence maximizes over northeastern SC and southeastern NC), steep low-level lapse rates and high PWAT contents (1.75-2.0") will favor the potential for isolated strong to locally damaging downburst winds. An instance or two of small hail may also accompany the most robust cores that develop along the sea breeze. A lack of greater effective shear will limit overall storm organization and longevity, thus precluding a greater severe risk. Given this, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 33248117 33638083 34747966 34967935 35107901 35297836 35377793 35437759 35457700 35437671 35377652 35287638 35167632 34997638 34847652 34717672 34607693 34547720 34427745 34267768 34027780 33857792 33797822 33777852 33627874 33327902 33077923 32588000 32408028 32418062 32498092 32678114 32908128 33248117 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more