SPC MD 960

MD 0960 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA Mesoscale Discussion 0960 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021942Z - 022215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may bring a threat for isolated damaging downburst winds and perhaps an instance or two of large hail along the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible satellite imagery and lightning data indicate an uptick in thunderstorm development across the eastern Florida Peninsula over the last 30-60 minutes, with west-northwesterly, deep-layer flow continuing to favor low-level convergence along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Isolated thunderstorms near the Jacksonville area have largely struggled to intensify thus far, likely owing to lingering warm mid/upper level temperatures around 400 mb sampled by a recent JAX ACARS profile. Increasing ascent ahead of an approaching upper-level trough across North Florida (evident in the 12/18z JAX observed soundings) should continue to support cooling mid-level temperatures. While convective coverage remains somewhat uncertain (especially across portions of the northern Peninsula where objective analysis depicts some lingering inhibition), this should allow for some increase in storm coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy (1500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE per latest objective analysis) and modest west/northwesterly flow aloft (as sampled by regional VAD profiles) will support some updraft organization with any developing storms, with multicells and marginal supercell structures possible. PWAT contents of 1.7+ inches will promote water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. Poor mid-level lapse rates will largely temper the overall hail risk, but an instance or two of large hail may accompany the most robust updrafts. An isolated landspout/waterspout may also be possible where a stronger low-level updraft can interact with enhanced surface vertical vorticity along the sea breeze and/or an outflow boundary. The greatest severe risk is likely to manifest seaward of the Atlantic Coast sea breeze, where easterly winds and greater moisture in the low-levels will support greater buoyancy and enhanced effective shear. Watch issuance is not expected due to the expectation for severe coverage/magnitude to remain limited, however. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 26898128 27838182 29208218 30258230 30728225 30988207 31028169 30908153 30738138 30378124 29318089 28588041 28458039 28198046 27328005 26877991 26417992 26278003 26238016 26298054 26898128 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more