SPC MD 1064

MD 1064 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS Mesoscale Discussion 1064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...northeastern Missouri...southwestern Wisconsin...and northwestern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101609Z - 101815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are currently moving northeastward through central Iowa and northeastern Missouri. These storms may gradually strengthen in the next couple of hours, posing a threat for wind gusts and small hail. A watch will likely be needed soon in the northern portion of the highlighted area. DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorm complexes are moving through central IA and northeastern MO this morning. A few 40+ kt gusts have been reported across central IA with the strongest cores. Per current mesoanalysis, they are located along the leading edge of a mid-level impulse propagating through IA in a zone of broad upper-level difluence. Modest heating amidst scattered cloud cover is yielding gradual warming into the low-/mid-80s F which -- combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s F -- supports MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg ahead of the storms. Bulk shear is around 25-30 kts, increasing to around 30-35 kts in the northern portion of the highlighted area. The general expectation is for these storms to gradually intensify as they move northeastward during the next couple of hours. Convective evolution remains uncertain; some high-resolution guidance depicts a consolidated cold pool and bowing system, while others depict more discrete through early afternoon. Regardless of mode, the background environment should support a gradually ramping-up threat for wind gusts and small hail. Watch issuance is likely in the short term in the delineated area to cover these threats. ..Flournoy/Mosier.. 06/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40308978 39319127 39109248 39299281 40089239 40709192 41359206 41939258 42239359 42869326 43229286 43469204 42989031 41838962 40308978 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more