SPC MD 1025

MD 1025 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA Mesoscale Discussion 1025 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...Southwestern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080946Z - 081145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts may occur with strong to occasionally severe storms in southwest Nebraska. A watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Storm cells within southwest Nebraska have shown occasional increases in intensity over the past couple of hours. This activity is occurring near the intersection of a surface trough and cold front. Greater buoyancy is displaced farther to the south, but low 60s F dewpoints with southeasterly surface winds are supporting 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. With steep mid-level lapse rates (per 00Z LBF sounding) and adequate effective shear, isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible. The primary question is whether storms can move southward and ingest greater moisture/buoyancy. This could occur if cold pools can congeal later this morning. However, with deepening of the surface low in western Kansas expected, storms may be undercut by the cold front and weaken before they can move southward. ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 40150211 41430245 41880228 41810109 41090002 40319991 40020037 39980152 40150211 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more