SPC MD 847

MD 0847 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA Mesoscale Discussion 0847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Areas affected...Western Kansas into southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241905Z - 242100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible as thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Limited coverage should preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Despite limited moisture, cumulus have been deepening along the surface trough in far eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska. Temperatures are in the upper 80s to low 90s F. When modifying the 18Z observed LBF sounding for these conditions, MLCIN is minimal. It is likely to take some time before thunderstorms can develop/intensify as greater moisture/buoyancy exists to the east of the current convection. Higher temperature/dewpoint spreads suggests severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard this afternoon. Greater confidence in storm development exists from northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska as moisture/shear are greater here. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 39079942 37880032 37510107 37480181 37710231 40500102 40680098 40840022 40619905 39649899 39079942 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more