SPC MD 848

MD 0848 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Areas affected...portions of north and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241939Z - 242245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorms may pose a sporadic risk for strong to severe gusts this afternoon and early evening. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 2035 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery showed initial thunderstorm development was underway across portions of north TX. These initial storms have developed along a diffuse remnant boundary where low-level confluence has helped to erode ambient inhibition faster. Strong heating amid a seasonably moist surface air mass (dewpoints 65-70 F) should continue this afternoon, which will result in a broadly unstable (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE) environment over much of the southern Plains. Additional development is likely, both within the warm sector in central TX, and ahead of a remnant MCV over western north TX through the next couple of hours. While the environment is unstable, vertical shear is very weak (generally under 15 kts). This will favor a pulse multicell mode with little organization potential. Some CAM solutions suggest clustering is possible, which could support sporadic stronger gusts with downbursts. Thus, while some severe potential is evident, a WW is likely not needed. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31140013 31450006 32669942 33259930 33939827 33319673 32719599 31929590 31219656 30649714 30459762 30219804 30069867 30059917 30189983 31140013 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more