SPC MD 842

MD 0842 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. Mesoscale Discussion 0842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 Areas affected...portions of northeastern new Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232039Z - 232245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to pose a risk for hail and some damaging winds into this evening. A WW is possible. DISCUSSION...Across portions of the southern High Plains, afternoon satellite and radar imagery showed high-based convection strengthening across the southern Raton mesa in northeastern NM and southeastern CO. South of a broad upper trough and modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft, weak upslope flow has resulted in modest destabilization of the air mass so far this afternoon. Continued warming will support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE amid steep low and mid-level lapse rates (18z AMA sounding). 20-30 kt of deep-layer flow on area VADs is supportive of a mixed mode of multicellular and transient supercell structures. Ongoing storms over NM/CO should continue east/southeastward with gradual intensification as they encounter more buoyancy. Additional, more isolated, storm development is possible along a subtle sfc confluence axis across the central TX Panhandle. CAM guidance and observational trends shows these storms intensifying, with an associated increase in the severe risk through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. Isolated large hail is possible initially, especially with any longer-lived supercells. Some potential for severe wind gusts is also possible given the steep low-level lapse rates. This threat could increase further as a gradual clustering is expected during the evening hours across southern portions of the TX Panhandle where buoyancy is greater. With severe potential expected to increase, a WW is possible over the next couple of hours. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 33660275 34120314 34790350 35490357 36000356 36380333 36880256 36700107 35890050 35330019 34250025 33620060 33360094 33300216 33660275 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more