SPC MD 751

MD 0751 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN Mesoscale Discussion 0751 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Areas affected...portions of central Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171932Z - 172200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts, with some potential for a tornado or two. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES water vapor imagery reveals an MCV over south-central Wisconsin, in close proximity to persistent elevated convection that has been ongoing through the morning and into the afternoon hours. Downstream of these features, latest surface analysis indicates a quasi-stationary surface boundary/warm front extending roughly west-east across central Lower Michigan with recent convective development noted north of Grand Rapids. South of this boundary, temperatures in the mid-80s and dewpoints in the low 60s F are contributing 500 to locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear (per latest mesoanalysis) is sufficient to support multicells/supercells with any convection that develops along/south of this boundary. This will promote the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts with any sustained convection this afternoon. With time, a strengthening southerly low-level jet is forecast to yield an increase in low-level hodograph curvature into this evening, which would favor at least some increase in the threat for a tornado or two, particularly with any supercell/convection that can favorably interact with the warm front. Uncertainty remains regarding convective coverage and persistence within the warm sector, however. Trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance may eventually be needed. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 42718592 42888628 43378655 43828661 44218648 44508618 44588460 44578373 44478329 44208285 43898253 43528246 43198259 42958316 42808366 42728508 42718592 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more