SPC MD 88

MD 0088 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA Mesoscale Discussion 0088 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Areas affected...Parts of north-central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 160134Z - 160400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized risk of strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will continue for the next few hours across parts of north-central Florida. DISCUSSION...Clusters of mainly disorganized thunderstorms continue spreading/developing east-southeastward across north-central FL within a zone of low-level confluence and weak positive theta-e advection. Weak pre-convective buoyancy may continue to limit updraft intensity, though a narrow plume of middle/upper 60s dewpoints is contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE closer to the coast. Despite the weak buoyancy, the TBW 00Z sounding and VWP are sampling strong low/deep-layer shear -- aided by a 40-50-kt southwesterly low-level jet and 60-70-kt midlevel flow. Enhanced low-level hodograph curvature (around 350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) may favor transient circulations embedded within the clusters of storms as they continue east-southeastward, and locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out for the next few hours. Any severe risk is expected to remain too limited for a watch. ..Weinman/Hart.. 02/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 28938133 28808112 28648106 28378112 28098133 27848171 27568217 27478249 27508277 27718289 28008295 28358279 28928165 28938133 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more