SPC MD 180

MD 0180 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS Mesoscale Discussion 0180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Areas affected...Parts of LA into southwest MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091812Z - 092015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms may pose a risk of damaging gusts, marginal hail, and perhaps a localized/brief tornado risk. DISCUSSION...Within a zone of broad/weak low-level warm advection in southern/central LA, diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints is aiding in destabilization and removal of inhibition. As a result, a modest uptick in thunderstorm strength and coverage has occurred over the last 30 minutes or so. While the lingering inhibition and generally weak large-scale forcing for ascent cast uncertainty on thunderstorm intensification/longevity, around 30-40 kt of effective shear (stronger with northward extent) and small clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may support a couple loosely organized storms through the afternoon. The stronger/longer-lived storms will pose a risk of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail, though the moist boundary layer and low-level streamwise vorticity may support a localized/brief tornado risk as well. Current thinking is that the severe risk will remain too localized for a watch, though trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30829390 31129382 31549363 32029315 32569198 32579101 32429025 32158998 31858993 31489003 31009053 30439229 30389313 30509363 30829390 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more